Morning Brew Daily
Tough Tariffs… Softening? & Nike's Sprint To Dominate Running Again
Thu, 24 Apr 2025
Episode 568: Neal and Toby discuss the markets’ sigh of relief after the White House said it would consider dialing back the tariffs on Chinese goods. Then, Yale plans to liquidate some of its assets as many elite universities look for other ways to secure cash. Also, Nike is leaning on one elite runner to break records and get its stride back in the running game. Meanwhile, Neal shares his favorite numbers from rich households, meat, and ‘Conclave’. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Visit https://planetoat.com/ to learn more! 00:00 - YouTube turns 20 3:45 - Tough on tariffs soften up 8:40 - Yale Raises Some Cash 12:20 - Nike tries to reclaim running crown 17:45 - Rich get richer 19:45 - Meat is back 21:50 - ‘Conclave’ resurgence 23:45 - Sprint Finish! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is the significance of YouTube turning 20 years old?
Good Thursday morning. We missed a big birthday yesterday. YouTube turned 20 years old. Time sure does fly when you go down the Denver airport conspiracy rabbit hole. On April 23, 2005, the first video was uploaded to YouTube, grainy 19-second footage of a visit to the elephant enclosure at the San Diego Zoo.
the 20 years since has seen a lot of videos and a lot of growth from lonely island to the evolution of dance to coney 2012 to gangnam style to mr beast now youtube is estimated to be worth about 550 billion dollars as a standalone business more than netflix toby i know it's hard to choose but i have to ask what's your favorite youtube video ever
Well, first, I just want to go down memory lane here because I grew up with YouTube. It was right smack dab in my early days. So remember the OK Go music videos on the treadmills? There's obviously Charlie Bit Me and then Charlie the Unicorn as well. Harry Potter Puppet Pals. As I read through this list, I'm like, what was going into my brain during these formative years?
And then Dude Perfect was a big one, too. They were very early to the YouTube days as well. But those were foundational, and I hope some of our listeners can remember those. But the YouTube video I've probably watched the most, and that is my favorite, is one called Where Dreams Go to Die, Gary Robbins and the Barkley Marathons.
This is an inside look into what is considered the hardest ultramarathon in the world. So anytime I have to do something hard, I watch that YouTube video for a little perspective because nothing is as hard as the Barkley marathons. Do you have a favorite YouTube video in mind?
I mean, recently it's been Rory McIlroy every shot final round at the Masters. I've been watching that one on repeat.
Recency bias, but I think that one is well. Totally recency bias. And now a word from our sponsor, Planet Oat. Neil, you ever upgrade your phone and immediately start to wonder how you were ever rocking the old one?
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That's the Planet Oat effect. Pour it into your coffee once, and suddenly your whole morning routine just levels up.
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Chapter 2: How are tariffs on Chinese goods softening and what does it mean for the markets?
They're going to be very nice, he said, much to the S&P 500's delight, which jumped more than 2% as it digested his new stance. The change in tune likely stems from a meeting Trump had with CEOs earlier this week,
The president sat down with the heads of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, who privately warned that the current tariff and trade policy will lead to price hikes and store shelves emptying in a matter of weeks as tariffs hinder global logistics. Their fears are warranted.
American importers have already began to cancel shipments from China, with U.S.-China shipping falling 60% in the weeks since the latest tariffs on China were announced, according to Ryan Peterson, the CEO of logistics firm Flexport. So, Neil, while the market partied yesterday on the back of some good soundbites, actual trade looks like it's still in a little bit of a precarious position.
Yeah, the trade war is going to the stock market. And they're like, why are you so obsessed with me? Because the market is hanging on every single word coming out of the White House from either President Trump or Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. It's surged. more than 2% after Trump said we would probably see a come down in the tariffs.
But then it went a little bit down after Besant said, well, this wouldn't be unilateral. We need to actually get a deal with China. And they're down again this morning in futures trading. S&P 500 is down about 0.5% because China just came out and said, well, we haven't heard from the White House. No one's called us. And here's the thing about negotiating with China. They do not call you first.
There's only one time in recent memory when a Chinese leader initiated contact with an American leader. And that was after September 11th, 2001, when they sent a telegram of condolence to George W. Bush. But still, George Bush still had to make the first call. So if the Americans are intent on negotiating with China, they cannot rely on Xi Jinping to make the call because they just don't do that.
Yeah, so that's why the soundbite of, we're going to be very nice to them, did cause markets to kind of jump a little bit. But let's look at the actual activity around ports. What is actually going on in this trade war? And activity is certainly declining. Right now, there are 22 vessels scheduled to enter the port of Los Angeles this week.
There's only 18 scheduled to enter next week, and then just 12 the week after that. So it doesn't take a math degree to realize that that number is going down. And then, yeah, Flexport's CEO has kind of sounded the alarm here and said, 60% down from typical levels here. Axios did kind of do a deep dive, though, and said that this is low numbers that we're seeing right now, but not unprecedented.
Right now, the forecast for May 4th of the number of containers that will enter the Port of Los Angeles is about 62,000. Go back to March 4th, 2024. 61,000 containers were kind of waiting to enter the port. So it's not necessarily something that is historically bad or low right now, but tech trade volumes tend to mean revert. They come back to like a stasis point.
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Chapter 3: Why is Yale planning to liquidate private equity holdings?
And the fact that they're planning to sell $6 billion worth of private equity is certainly a warning signal to this sector. There's been a boom in private equity, certainly over the last decade. But in recent years, it's been very hard to find exits for companies.
The way private equity works is you typically buy a company, you make it more efficient, you pump up the value, and then you sell it off after 10 years that you own it. The problem is in this market environment over the past few years, it's been very hard to sell that off. And maybe Yale is a canary in the coal mine for a broader reckoning in private equity.
Nike is looking to get its mojo back, and it thinks the answer is to get someone to run a mile in their shoes faster than you can make a bag of rice a roni. Faith Kipyagon is a Kenyan track star who is widely acknowledged to be the greatest female middle distance runner of all time.
Nike thinks she can also be the first woman to break the mythical four-minute mile barrier that has captivated the athletic world since the days of Roger Bannister. The project, titled Faith Kipyagon vs. the Four-Minute Mile, is a way for Nike to show it's still got the juice after years of losing market share to rivals like Ahn and Hoka.
It's attempted these moonshots before, most recently working with Elliot Kipchoge to try and break the two-hour mark in the marathon. The idea is to put the athletes in their latest generation of super shoes, then attack the margins in order to make them incrementally faster. Precise pacing formations, carefully calibrated nutrition, and ideal conditions
are some of the levers that Nike hopes to pull to shave off seconds from Kip Yegan's time. Now, about that time, right now, Kip Yegan is the world record holder in the mile, having run a 4.07 back in 2023. So these shoes, Neil, have to be very super in order for her to shave off eight seconds.
My first question when I saw this was, well, can she do it? Is that even possible? Well, there were scientists that did a study. They posted it in the Journal of the Royal Society Open Science. They said, yes, she could do it under very specific conditions. She could run 359.37 with drafting provided by one pacer in front and one in back. And then you change out with two other pacers.
At 800 meters, they said if these conditions are fulfilled, then she could possibly do it. And I'm sure Nike is really hoping she does. But maybe it doesn't even matter because they're in this for the publicity anyway and to promote themselves as the purveyors of a super shoe and athletics that they've kind of missed the boat on over the past few years.
Yeah, they definitely need to get kind of their swagger back a little bit. I think this might be a step too far, though, because, I mean, Faith Kipyagon is truly just like the GOAT middle distance runner for women. And unfortunately, she's not necessarily super close. I mean, 4.07 is... It seems like it's close. I mean, seven seconds, but that is a gargantuan model.
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Chapter 4: What is Nike doing to reclaim its dominance in running?
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Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will have your brain purring like a V10 engine on a Porsche Carrera GT. My first number is $1 trillion, which is how much wealth was created for the 19 richest American households last year. Yes, just 19 households.
Think Elon Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos, Gates, and Buffett increased their wealth by $1 trillion in a single year. That is more than the value of Switzerland's entire economy, according to the Wall Street Journal. And if you stacked $1 trillion in dollar bills on top of each other, it would reach more than a quarter of the way to the moon.
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Chapter 5: What are some interesting economic numbers from rich households and markets?
For my final number, a movie about cardinals gathering in secret to elect a new pope is booming in popularity as cardinals gather in secret to elect a new pope. Streaming viewership for Conclave, last year's Oscar-winning drama depicting a fictionalized vote on the next pope, has jumped 283% after Pope Francis' death.
On April 20th, right before the Pope died, people watched 1.8 million minutes of Conclave. On Monday, that increased to 6.9 million minutes watched. Those numbers could get much bigger because on Tuesday, the movie became available to stream for Amazon Prime members before you had to rent or buy it.
So it's clear that people are turning to Conclave to learn more about this mysterious process by which cardinals seal themselves off from the world to elect a new leader. But is the fictional account accurate? Experts say, honestly, yeah, for the most part.
Sure, some of it is a little overdramatic, but according to Catholic historian Kathleen Sprouse Cummings, the film did a great job of portraying the types of conversations that happened before a Conclave and nailed a lot of the details. Toby, talk about making a timely movie.
I know, and I can't think of 283% increase more well spent because we both really enjoyed the movie. This is kind of the running up that hill, you know, Kate Bush moment from Stranger Things where you just see something just get a massive tailwind and start jumping up the streaming charts. And yeah, I do love that they did focus on the small details.
A lot of it goes back to the actual book that it was based off of. So you got to give credit where credit is due. Still not everything is exactly right. They pointed out things like tables in the Sistine Chapel are positioned differently and the Cardinals actually do not address each other the way that they do in the film.
So I don't know if those are creative liberties, you know, changing the orientation of the tables. But yeah, just exactly the movie that people needed right now because you are curious. It is a secretive process and it does do a great job of illuminating what actually goes on behind those closed doors. Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.
As Google stares down an antitrust trial that could force it to shave off its Chrome business, OpenAI is tossing its hat in the ring and saying, you know what? If we had to, we'd be interested in buying the lucrative web browser.
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Chapter 6: Why is meat making a comeback in the market?
As the Justice Department soldiers through a three-week trial to sort out what to do with Google after a judge last year found the company monopolized the search market, a variety of witnesses have been called to the stand, one of which was OpenAI's head of chat GPT, Nick Turley. When asked whether his company would seek to buy Google's browser, he responded, yes.
We would, as would many other parties. Not only does Chrome spit off money, but OpenAI is most certainly interested in its power as a distribution vehicle. Chrome has 3 billion users compared to ChatGPT's 300 million and would represent an avenue to find its way onto Android smartphones after being mostly stonewalled on that front.
Neil, it feels like OpenAI is kind of being your ex's best friend here and saying, oh, just come here, Justice Department. I'll be your shoulder to cry on and also date you and make billions of dollars off of Google Chrome.
What do you think Microsoft is thinking right now? Because they've invested $13 billion into OpenAI. They have a tight partnership. And they also have a browser and a search engine. And here you have OpenAI saying, actually, we're not so satisfied with what Microsoft has produced. We really want the Google one.
I do think part of it, though, is like the smartphone deal. Because remember, OpenAI struck this partnership with Apple to kind of have their models end up on their phones, but completely have been shut out by Android, mostly because Android is owned by Google. And so you go to Samsung and say, hey, can we jump on these phones? And they say, no, we're using Google's Gemini platform.
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Chapter 7: What is the resurgence of ‘Conclave’ and what does it signify?
So I do think that part of it is just figuring out how to enter into the other half of the smartphone market, which would be very big for open AI. And then also, yeah, they're a competitor and they get called to the stand. Of course, he's going to say, well, I'm not going to say no to this.
Like you're asking me, like, of course we would want this, but who knows how real this actual deal is because, you know, it could create just another monopoly if you hand it over.
Chapter 8: What are the key takeaways from today’s market and sports updates?
And we don't even know if Google is going to be forced to sell Chrome. We'll know by August. American mothers could get a $5,000 check for having a baby under a proposal pitched to the White House to encourage people to marry and have more children. The concept of a lucrative 5K baby bonus...
is just one of many schemes currently under consideration as part of the government's efforts to stave off a depopulation crisis here in the United States. A number of countries that are shrinking, like Japan and South Korea, have launched financial incentives to spur more baby-making, but we haven't seen those types of measures yet in America. Trump and Vice President J.D.
Vance, in particular, have adopted a pro-natalist approach that advocates for more families, and they've been fielding a bunch of plans from anyone who has any ideas. Another idea, separate from the baby bonus, is to award a National Medal of Motherhood to mothers with six or more children.
Yeah, this is the question of kind of this generation right now as developed nations are struggling with falling birth rates, which leads to aging populations, which leads to the young population having to take care of this aging population. So it leads to a lot of issues.
And we've seen in Tokyo they've instituted a four-day work week for government employees to try to encourage people to start families. So a lot of different experiments.
Maybe we should adopt that one.
Yeah. Yeah, four-day work week. Well, we got a pretty good gig for five days. But yeah, cash for babies is sometimes not as effective as it sounds because so many factors go into having kids. Your current economic situation, what you think the future is going to be like, your own specific life circumstances.
So $5,000 for a baby does sound good on the surface, but other nations have kind of struggled to make that exact transaction work. If you thought trade between the US and China was frozen over, it's got nothing on the NFL draft that kicks off tonight.
Barring any last-minute deals, every team will go into the draft with the original first-round picks for the first time since 1967, according to the AP. Now, we're recording this on Thursday morning, so... This could be null and void by the time the Titans are on the clock with the first pick. But if stasis remains, feel free to drop that little nugget at your draft watch party.
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