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Planet Money

How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

21 May 2025

Description

Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Music: Source Audio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Audio
Transcription

Full Episode

1.226 - 3.308 Claudia Song

This is Planet Money from NPR.

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6.631 - 13.397 Keith Romer

It has been an unusual last few months for economics watchers on social media.

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13.858 - 22.946 Claudia Song

Yeah, if you've been the TikToking and the Snapchatting and the Instagramming, blue-skying. That's what they say. They say all those as verbs. Perhaps you have noticed a trend, friends.

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23.519 - 32.964 Keith Romer

Suddenly, something that we here at Planet Money are thinking about all the time is kind of having a viral moment. Recession indicators. Oh, yeah.

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33.084 - 45.63 Claudia Song

Allow us a quick tour through TikTok to demonstrate. Example one, when the restaurant Five Guys, you know, burgers and fries, announced it was testing out a combo meal, a value meal, really, for the first time ever.

46.151 - 52.434 Keith Romer

Child is getting so bad out here. That is a recession indicator, says TikTok user TheSimplySimone.

52.614 - 61.697 Kenny Malone

Little burger, little fry, and I believe a small drink, which honestly is basically a kid's meal. Baby, you know what's bad when Five Guys is actually rolling out combo meal.

61.777 - 65.458 Claudia Song

Now, Five Guys did tell us little does not mean kid's size, but like, whatever, you get the idea.

65.779 - 69.38 Keith Romer

Example number two comes from TikTok user Bryce Gruber.

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