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All right, so yesterday, the U.S. economic report came in. Q1, GDP is down. The biggest danger to the Trump administration and their agenda is very clearly an economic downturn. By far, it's not particularly close. I've been saying this now for months.
If there were to be an economic downturn under President Trump, the rest of the very important agenda items that he is pursuing, everything from illegal immigration to wiping DEI out of the federal government, everything from rebuilding the United States military to Doge, all of it goes out the window if the economy falls because the way the American people think about politics is quite simple.
when it comes to presidents and the economy. If the economy is good, the president gets the credit. If the economy is bad, the president gets the blame. It is really that simple. Well, yesterday, the GDP report came in and it showed negative GDP growth. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is typically termed a recession. in sort of technical terms.
Now, obviously, Americans are feeling very skittish about the economy in general right now. And feelings, unfortunately, don't care about your facts when it comes to the economy very often. Sometimes people feel worse about the economy than it actually is. Sometimes they feel better about the economy than it actually is.
But all of those feelings tend to make themselves actually heard in the economic statistics eventually because people are buying and selling and doing all of these things based on what they feel their own personal financial status is. According to the Wall Street Journal, The U.S.
economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration's tariffs and consumer spending slowed. The Commerce Department said U.S. GDP fell at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. Consumer spending did increase at 1.8%.
That is the smallest increase since mid-2023. Spending by the federal government fell, but the main driver of the first quarter contraction was... Wait for it. The tariff war. Of course, of course. It turns out everyone has been on the edge of their seats. It's a roller coaster, this tariff war, at best. Investors have pulled their money out.
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