The Chuck ToddCast
Democrats Need Some Soul Searching + Jake Sherman On The Capitol Hill Chaos
03 Apr 2025
On episode 2 of the brand-new Chuck Toddcast, Chuck is joined by Jake Sherman, founder of Punchbowl News and one of the most well-connected reporters on Capitol Hill.But first, Chuck reflects on the results of the special elections in Florida and the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which showed that the base of the out-of-power party is fired up. He explains why this suggests voters are more inclined to vote against a party rather than for one. He also discusses why the party in question is in desperate need of soul-searching and possible realignment to build a winning coalition.Then, Jake Sherman joins the conversation to discuss the latest from D.C. They begin by examining Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to send the House home for the week after a dispute over proxy voting for members of Congress—and why Johnson’s power is tied directly to President Donald Trump. They also explore the revenge-driven mindset that has shaped decision-making on Capitol Hill and the lack of Republican pushback against Trump’s sweeping tariffs.They dive into how the dynamics of the current Congress differ from those of years past and why some Republicans might view their loss in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race through rose-colored glasses—thanks in part to Elon Musk.They wrap up by discussing whether Democrats could see a shake-up in leadership and the timeline for passing a tax cut and a debt ceiling extension.Finally, Chuck wraps up with a listener question in the “Ask Chuck” segment by giving his take on whether the debate around a Trump third term was a smokescreen to knock “Signalgate” out of the news cycle.Timeline:0:00 Introduction2:00 Voters are telling us what they DON’T like5:00 Democrats need to do some soul searching9:45 Democrats can’t just be “anti-Trump”11:17 Jake Sherman joins the show15:50 Mike Johnson sends the house home20:30 Is Johnson powerless without Trump?23:10 Revenge is the mindset of Republicans25:50 Any appetite in Congress to take back authority from the executive branch?28:15 Will economic downturn/tariffs scare elected Republicans31:20 Lack of experience in Trump’s cabinet38:00 Could we see a deluge of Republican retirements from Congress41:25 Members of Congress are different now43:28 Republicans secretly happy they can blame Elon Musk for the Wisconsin loss?46:28 Would Chuck Schumer win a leadership vote in the Senate?49:05 Timeline for passing tax cuts/debt ceiling extension?56:05 Ask Chuck: Was the “Trump third term” debate a smokescreen to knock “Signalgate” out of the news”(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
Full Episode
Welcome back to another episode of the Chuck Todd cast. It is day two in my sort of new world here and for my friends now on YouTube. Hopefully you are liking and subscribing. I'm still learning the lingo. So cut me a little bit of slack there. For episode one, I was able to talk about the post-election fallout of April 1st. And that was sort of the first temperature check, right?
In a conversation I had with Chris Eliza, I said, you know, it's like if you're a college basketball fan, it's like watching those tournaments that take place in Hawaii over the holidays. They count. They're real regular season games. They give you a sense of who's good, who's not, et cetera. But it is not the be all end all. But it's a temperature check.
You really get to find out what, you know, what's your team made of. And I think now we got a temperature check and we found out a few things that are that really haven't changed. Right. Number one is we still have the shotgun Trump voters, as I mentioned yesterday, when Trump's not on the ballot. There is clearly a five to 10 point disadvantage for any Republican running.
Democrats are a bit more fired up right now. Frankly, I think there was a little bit of a question. How fired up would the party be? There's been a lot of disillusionment. You've seen these town halls have gotten people fired up, but you've also seen Democrats get cranky at other Democrats because they don't think that they're fighting hard enough.
I think there was some concern in some Democrats I talked to that maybe some would sit on their hands. Well, you didn't have that. So you clearly were starting to see in some ways... A similar pattern takes shape that we saw, frankly, when the first in 2017 during the first Trump turn.
And you saw it really in 2021 going in to Biden's one term there that the pattern of the party out of power suddenly looks more appealing because. What we're really in is an era of voters telling us what they don't like. We've now had three straight presidential elections where voters have voted against. They've told us they voted who they didn't want.
They didn't want Hillary Clinton as president, so Donald Trump became president. They didn't want a second Donald Trump term, so Joe Biden became president. They didn't want a Kamala Harris slash Biden second term, so we ended up with Donald Trump. And how do you know that that's the case? Because look how quickly... Trump's approval rating fell. It fell even faster than Biden's.
And what's instructive, I think, right, about all of them is that Trump won, Biden won, and Trump too, is that in all cases, they started with a little bit of a honeymoon, not a great one, but somewhere in the 50% mark. And it's almost like the first crisis dipped them and they never recovered.
Trump really never recovered from from sort of the initial sort of chaos of the first 90 days of administration, the travel ban, the in and out, all the different fired members, you know, firing James Comey, the launch of the special counsel probe. Right. So there was all this chaos and it sort of kept his approval ratings in the mid 40s with Joe Biden.
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