Chuck Todd is joined by geopolitical expert and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer to unpack the global implications of President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the international order.Chuck opens the episode by examining how Trump’s use of tariffs and his zero-sum approach to foreign policy are dismantling decades of established U.S. trade and diplomatic norms.Ian then joins the conversation to assess the ripple effects of Trump’s tariffs on global trade, how key U.S. allies and rivals are likely to respond, and whether China stands to benefit in the long run.He explains how Trump’s policies may be inadvertently strengthening Xi Jinping, why the U.S. is ill-equipped to operate in a “law of the jungle” environment, and what kind of economic damage could be on the horizon.The discussion turns to the rise of anti-American sentiment abroad, the erosion of the rule of law at home, and why the economic fallout may disproportionately affect red states.They then take a global tour of hotspots: debating the prospects for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran, whether Turkey has fully slipped into autocracy, and the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2025. To wrap up the episode, Chuck answers listener questions in the "Ask Chuck" segment.Timeline0:00 Introduction1:00 Trump is creating a new world order2:00 Trump has a zero-sum view of foreign policy4:00 Could Trump break with Putin over lack of ceasefire?6:00 Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0 are completely different9:00 Ian Bremmer joins the show10:00 Has Trump broken the world economic order, or temporarily disrupted it?11:15 Countries will begin to de-risk away from the US13:30 Trump using emergency powers to unilaterally break international agreements18:00 China will become dominant in the old architecture built by the U.S.21:15 People voting for a second “Trump 1.0” and are getting something vastly different22:30 Instability will force unity on the EU23:30 Americans don’t understand how good we have it*24:30 The future of power seems to lie with the autocracies and not the democracies25:30 Is Trump throwing a lifeline to Xi Jinping?29:30 The U.S. doesn’t have the right political system to operate in the “law of the jungle”32:00 China’s surveillance state will check any type of middle class uprising34:30 How different would things look if we had the TPP?38:00 How should companies navigate the uncertainty Trump is creating?39:30 Products from China are already becoming unavailable41:00 Companies are all lobbying for exemptions42:00 The hit to the US economy is going to be massive44:20 The rise of anti-American sentiment45:45 The first amendment only applies to citizens now?46:45 The hit to American tourism will be substantial48:00 Economic damage will hit red states the hardest49:30 Mexican government has been willing to cooperate51:45 Trump wants to cut a deal with Iran, even if it makes Israel unhappy54:20 Will Erdogan get away with smashing democracy in Turkey?56:15 What to make of the political turmoil in South Korea?58:00 Will Bolsanaro/Le Pen have their charges stick, or could they win office in the future?1:00:30 Biggest risks to the world? Is Trump at the top of that list?1:02:30 Will the Ukraine/Russia war achieve a ceasefire this year?1:06:20 Ask Chuck1:06:40 What books do you assign your class to best understand this political moment?1:12:00 Are we in a competitive autocracy similar to Erdogan’s Turkey?(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
Full Episode
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Hello there, welcome to another episode of the Chuck Toddcast. My guest today is Ian Bremmer. He is principal of the Eurasia Group, really sort of one of the foreign policy and national security analysts that I consume the most. If you've followed me down in Meet the Press and the NBC days, you know that I've Used in quite a lot in my expert category when it comes to national security.
He is as wired as there is when it comes to, particularly when it comes to America's closest economic allies, Japan. Japan, Canada, the UK, basically the G7, right? In many ways, the G7 is America's closest allies, the key European countries plus Japan and Canada there. And he's, look, it's not just there that he's well sourced, he's well sourced a lot of key trade allies.
And given what's going on right now, and basically the conversation that I have with him is trying to see, is there a um George H. W. Bush zu bezeichnen, gleich nach dem Fall der Berlin Wall. Damals war es die Erstellung einer neuen Weltordnung. Und das war eine spannende Zeit, um eine neue Weltordnung zu erschaffen. Wir haben eine neue Weltordnung erschaffen, weil die Iron Curtain fiel.
Well, are we now creating a new world order, a different one? Basically, you know, the strongest shall thrive, right? And in many ways, this is, if you examine Donald Trump and what he really thinks when it comes to foreign policy, this really does, you're better off thinking this way than trying to come up with some other reasons why he thinks. He's a very binary thinker in this.
There are winners and losers. There's no such thing in Donald Trump's world as win-win. He may say the phrase win-win. He may want people to believe that when he does a deal that he believes he's gotten the better end of the deal, that he'll call it win-win. But he doesn't actually think there's ever an even split. He doesn't really, truly believe there is such thing as a win-win.
And so when you think of it that way, this is why he almost views every country that's not China and Russia as essentially a secondary power. And that they are somehow having to graft on. They're either a secondary power in Russia's sphere of influence, a secondary power in China's sphere of influence, or you're a secondary power in America's sphere of influence.
And so when you think about it in those terms, it's possible at least to understand perhaps why he has behaved the way he's behaved with Ukraine, for instance. You sit here and you ask yourself, boy, Ukraine has done everything the president's asked. Russia has not. And yet we have no ceasefire. And yet the president is not lecturing Putin for not coming to the table.
But he didn't mind lecturing Zelenskyy when Zelenskyy was already at the table. And I know there's plenty of other nefarious reasons that some people might apply to this idea of why Trump is being more patient with Putin than anything else. But I can tell you this at some point.
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