PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 17th, 2024: Putin's Withdrawal In Syria & Ukraine Assassinates Russian General In Moscow

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What is happening with Russia's military in Syria?

Mike Baker 0:38
Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We begin in Syria, where the Russian military appears to be conducting a large-scale withdrawal, ending over a week of speculation about whether they would stay or leave.

What led to the Russian general's assassination in Moscow?

Mike Baker 0:57
Then, we'll turn to Russia, where Ukraine's security service is claiming responsibility for the high-profile assassination of a Russian general right in the heart of Moscow. But first, our afternoon spotlight.

Why is Russia withdrawing troops from Syria?

Mike Baker 1:10
We'll begin with an update on Russia's troop presence in Syria, as major questions exist over whether the Kremlin will lose their strategic foothold in the Middle East in the wake of Putin ally Assad's overthrow.

What are the implications of Russia's military presence in Syria?

Mike Baker 1:23
As we discussed on last week's PDB, the lightning offensive that brought Islamist rebel militants to power just over a week ago presents a direct threat to the Kremlin's strategic military assets in the region.

How is Ukraine involved in the assassination of the Russian general?

Mike Baker 1:35
While the Russians have been attempting to negotiate a settlement with the rebel group HTS over the past week in order to keep their military bases in post-Assad Syria, well, so far, the discussions with the new regime have borne little fruit.

What are the reactions from Syria's new government regarding Russia?

Mike Baker 1:49
Given how involved the Russians were in propping up Assad and the amount of Syrian blood they have on their hands, I suppose it's not surprising that the new rebel government may not be interested in negotiations. Now, according to unnamed U.S. officials who spoke with CNN, Russia has begun withdrawing large amounts of military equipment and troops from its Syrian bases. While the officials said it's unclear whether the withdrawal will be permanent, they described the activity as, quote, significant. As a reminder, Russia has two military bases in Syria along the country's Mediterranean coast, a massive naval base in Tardis and an air base in the port city of Latakia. The base at Tardis is of particular importance, providing Russia with their only access point to the Mediterranean Sea. Both bases also function as the main transit hub for military assets into African countries, and that's a key strategic interest for the Putin regime.
Mike Baker 2:48
With that in mind, it appears Russia is now looking to potential alternatives to preserve their access to both the Mediterranean and Africa in the event that they lose their Tardis base, even temporarily. The Russians began moving naval assets from their base in Tardis to Libya late last week. Cargo planes registered to Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations have landed at a Russian outpost in northern Libya at least seven times over the past week. That's according to flight records and satellite imagery. The air base in question has been used by Russia in the past as a jumping-off point for their operations in Africa, including for the notorious Wagner Group mercenaries. As they continue moving their Syrian military assets to the Libyan base, a senior defense official told CNN that Moscow has also been increasing pressure on the Libyan National Army to endorse Russia's claim on a critical port in Benghazi.
Mike Baker 3:43
Back in Syria, satellite images show increased activity at the Tardis port and the airbase in Latakia, where Russian troops appear to be staging equipment for transfer. Two heavy military transport planes were seen at the airfield on Friday with their nose cones lifted, indicating that they're being loaded with cargo. Dismantled attack helicopters have also been spotted, and convoys carrying surface-to-air missile systems were photographed heading to the base. Regarding negotiations with the rebel regime in Damascus, the Kremlin is still working to find a solution, with a spokesman saying Monday, quote, there are no final decisions on this.

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