PDB Afternoon Bulletin | January 7th, 2025: Will Trump Strike Iran's Nuclear Program? & Biden Frees Gitmo Prisoners For Resettlement In Oman
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What are Donald Trump's plans for Iran?
First, we'll look at Donald Trump's plans for the Iranian regime as Israeli officials say that they're confident that the president-elect will back an IDF strike on Iran's nuclear facilities or even mount his own preemptive strike when he returns to office. Then, the Biden administration has announced the transfer of 11 Yemeni detainees from the Guantanamo Bay Military Prison to Oman for resettlement, including two prisoners who served as bodyguards for Osama bin Laden. But first, our afternoon spotlight.
What recent actions has the Biden administration taken regarding Gitmo prisoners?
With just two weeks to go until Donald Trump assumes office, the president-elect is setting his sights on Iran, particularly what the US can do to undermine the regime's atomic ambitions. According to an exclusive report from Axios, Israeli officials believe Trump will either support an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities or direct the U.S. military to launch its own preemptive strike on the sites. The report cites two sources close to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who met with the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago back in November.
What is the current status of Iran's nuclear ambitions?
Dermer, a close advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu, reportedly came away from the meeting confident that Israel will have a strong strategic partner in Trump when it comes to dealing with the increasing nuclear threat posed by Iran. The revelation comes as leaders in Jerusalem are increasingly considering a strike of their own on Iran's nuclear sites due to ongoing ballistic missile attacks on their cities by the Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. They also feel that the regime in Iran has been significantly weakened due to their proxy war against Israel and that now may offer an historic opportunity to end the mullahs' dreams of a bomb. In an interesting wrinkle, Axios reported that in recent weeks, senior advisors to President Biden had also privately encouraged him to strike Iran's nuclear program before Trump takes office, though others inside the administration reportedly pushed back. With only two weeks now remaining in his term, those discussions have reportedly stopped.
Regarding Trump, it remains unclear what his preferred path forward will be. Despite the speculation regarding a potential strike on Iran, other unnamed sources close to Trump told Axios that he'll likely attempt to strike a new nuclear agreement with Tehran before turning to possible military options. Trump, the dealmaker, is keen on avoiding further regional escalation in the Middle East, particularly a scenario that could pull in U.S. forces. Just last week, Iran's foreign minister said his country is eager to restart nuclear talks with the U.S. once Trump returns to office. As a reminder, in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, was reached between Iran, the US, and five other world powers.
The deal restricted Iran's nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief and extensive UN oversight, though Iran was quickly accused of flouting the terms of the deal, not to mention that there were several sites that the Iranian regime insisted be off-limits from any monitoring efforts. The U.S. withdrawal from the deal under Trump in 2018 marked a turning point.
How has Iran's position changed recently?
Sanctions were reimposed as part of a maximum pressure strategy by the then-Trump administration, to which Iran responded by stepping back from its commitments, notably increasing uranium enrichment to 60% purity and restricting access to certain nuclear sites, which, frankly, they had already done during the course of the agreement. Now, with their network of proxies crippled by Israel and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran is in a significantly weakened position. Due to this isolation, fears are growing among US and Israeli intelligence officials that Iran may pivot to further accelerating their development of a nuclear weapon. French President Emmanuel Macron was the latest to warn about Iran's renewed pursuit of a bomb, saying on Monday that the regime's nuclear program was nearing, quote, the point of no return. Given the stakes, we expect this issue to be front and center when Trump returns to the Oval Office on January 20th.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What are Donald Trump's plans for Iran?
0:22–0:56
2
What recent actions has the Biden administration taken regarding Gitmo prisoners?
0:56–1:32
3
What is the current status of Iran's nuclear ambitions?
1:32–3:45
4
How has Iran's position changed recently?
3:45–5:45
5
What historical context is important for understanding Iran's nuclear deal?
5:45
6
What could Trump's strategy be for dealing with Iran?
4:26–9:19
7
What are the implications of the transfer of Gitmo detainees?
9:19–11:21
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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