PDB Situation Report | December 7th, 2024: Will Assad Survive in Syria? & Iranian Hackers Target Kash Patel
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What is the main topic of this episode?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. And this weekend, our Situation Report is coming to you from London. Now, that's in the United Kingdom. I'm just here for a few days getting my knighthood. It's very exciting. All right, let's get briefed.
What challenges is Assad facing in Syria?
Start things off in Syria, where rebel forces continue their advance south, putting President Assad's regime on the defensive. Brian Carter from the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute will join us to break down the latest developments in this incredibly complex situation. And isn't that what the Middle East needed now? More chaos.
How are Iranian hackers targeting the U.S.?
Next, we'll shift stateside, where Iranian hackers are ramping up their cyber attacks, reportedly breaching the President-elect's nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel. We'll get insights from former FBI counterintelligence operative and founding partner of the Georgetown Group, Eric O'Neill. But first, the Situation Report Spotlight. The civil war in Syria broke wide open this week after rebels achieved significant victories by capturing two major cities, Aleppo and Hama, in a rapid offensive that has shaken the Assad regime's hold on the region. The fall of Aleppo a long-contested urban stronghold, marks a symbolic and strategic blow to the government, while Hamas capture further isolates Damascus, the regime's capital.
These developments suggest a dramatic shift in momentum, with rebel factions increasingly uniting against President Assad's forces, who now appear to be in retreat. Joining me now for more on this is Brian Carter. He's the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Brian, welcome to the show.
Thanks for having me.
Absolutely. Listen, let's start with a sort of a generic question here about Syria. How screwed is the region?
I don't know how badly this will impact the region yet, but Assad is definitely in big trouble. And I think one of the things that we have to look at as we watch the regime sort of collapse and crumble is what other groups are going to take advantage of this situation and exploit it to their own ends. So for me, the big one to watch is going to be ISIS. which has really grown in strength in some of the regime areas, such as the central Syrian desert, in the past couple of years. And I think that will have big impacts for the main U.S. priority in Syria for the past 10 years now, which has been the defeat of ISIS.
Can you set the table? I mean, again, this... I'd mentioned at the top of the show that this is a complex situation. That's putting it mildly. But for the viewers' sake, can you kind of set the table on the Rebels' side? Who are the Rebels? Where did they start from? How would you categorize them in terms of other groups out there in the Middle East? Sure.
So I'll start with the big one, Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham, which is the main opposition group that is conducting the offensive in kind of the north and western areas of Syria right now. So it was created by a man named Abu Muhammad Jolani. Jolani grew out of al-Qaeda in Iraq as an al-Qaeda guy, and he eventually took over the branch in Syria as al-Qaeda in Iraq began to transition in the Islamic State. He broke away from the Islamic State and pledged baya, or allegiance, to Zohiri, al-Qaeda's leader at the time. However, over the years, he's kind of tried to moderate himself and has begun to present himself less as a Salafi jihadi like Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State and more of what we call a political jihadist. He's not interested or he says he's not interested in external attacks outside of Syria. And instead, in recent years, has put a lot of effort into fighting
rehabilitating his image, working with minorities in the northwest of Syria. And this is one of the things actually that has made his offensive, his group's offensive, so successful is he's actually, when he liberates towns from the regime, he's doing it oftentimes without fighting because he will negotiate with local Shia or Christian notables and say, hey, if you join me, we're not going to have any problems.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic of this episode?
0:12–0:30
2
What challenges is Assad facing in Syria?
0:30–0:50
3
How are Iranian hackers targeting the U.S.?
0:50–13:10
4
Who are the key players in the Syrian conflict?
13:10–41:18
5
What is the current status of the rebel forces?
41:18
6
How has U.S. policy affected the situation in Syria?
32:43
7
What implications does the situation have for national security?
29:49
8
What are the chances of Assad's regime collapsing?
21:33–42:35
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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