Wall Street waits for the big tariff announcements on Wednesday. (0:18) Tariff cheat sheet. (2?17) Musk’s xAI acquires Musk’s X. (4:29)Show Notes Earnings CalendarDividend RoundupEpisode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb Sign up for our daily newsletter here and for full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores, dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.
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Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, March 30th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. It's not often that something can dwarf the jobs report on Wall Street, but the administration's global tariff announcements on Wednesday will almost certainly drive direction.
Tariff Tuesday would have had a better ring to it, but the fact that Tuesday is also April Fool's Day probably had something to do with White House planning. For his part, President Trump is calling Wednesday Liberation Day. But liberation rhymes with stagflation, the other word on the lips of traders.
Nomura strategist Charlie McGillicott says, "...in light of recent shorter-term inflation data, we too are seeing a local stagflation theme, as the diciness of Trump's Phase 1 growth-negative policy mix risks pulling sentiment-slash-consumer into an even more precarious place."
Pepperstone's Khazar Elizondia says, the combination of inflationary pressures, economic slowdown, and rising trade tensions creates a challenging environment for equities. Overall, current conditions point toward a concerning scenario with signs of stagflation, that slow economic growth coupled with persistent inflation, and a rapidly deteriorating economic sentiment.
So, what can investors expect on Wednesday? The experts agree. Who knows? Wells Fargo economists say, even as next week may bring some more answers around coming tariffs, trade-related uncertainty will likely persist as these policies take time to be enacted, are negotiated, and potentially even scale back.
It will also take time to see how tariffs dent growth and drive inflation, as uncertainty is causing most businesses to sit and await clarification. This was evident in fresh durable goods data this week, which showed a stable but hesitant trend in demand amid low intentions for new capital investment among businesses, they added.
McElligot says April 2nd is now being viewed by a lot of folks I'm speaking with as the end of the beginning. as this only kicks off a daisy chain of retaliatory tariff escalations or, in the opposite direction, potential concessions. Plus, of course, this then too starts the clock on the inevitable growth drag off the back of global trade and consumer sticker shock implications.
Want a cheat sheet? ING has you covered, and this will sub for the Wall Street Research Corner today. The key seven questions and answers condensed are... What tariffs will get imposed on the 2nd of April? Reciprocal tariffs are hideously complicated to do in practice. Remember, every country charges thousands of different tariffs.
It gets even more complicated still when you throw regulatory barriers and most controversially of all, VAT. Question number two, will these tariffs be long-lasting? These reciprocal tariffs could be much longer-lasting than the on-and-off Canada and Mexico measures we've seen so far.
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