第1528期:Will robots cost us our jobs？

As new technology is introduced, there are many who worry about its impact on our current and future lifestyles – particularly when it comes to jobs. It is a current belief that with the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence, many people’s jobs, and therefore their livelihoods, are likely to be lost to automation. 随着新技术的引入，许多人担心它对我们当前和未来生活方式的影响——尤其是在工作方面。当前的一种观点是，随着机器人技术和人工智能的兴起，许多人的工作以及他们的生计很可能会因自动化而消失。This type of fear isn’t new. In the 19th century, the automated weaving machine was revolutionising the English textiles industry and would contribute to the Industrial Revolution. When manual workers became redundant, it sparked protests at the loss of their vocation.这种恐惧并不新鲜。在 19 世纪，自动织机正在彻底改变英国纺织业，并将为工业革命做出贡献。当体力劳动者变得多余时，引发了对失去职业的抗议。Automation in the work place is nothing new. Machines have been performing menial tasks on our behalf for years, allowing us to escape the drudgery that accompanies many repetitive jobs. In fact, the International Federation of Robotics states that in manufacturing on average there are now 74 robots per 10,000 employees. That has risen from 66 in 2015.工作场所的自动化并不是什么新鲜事。多年来，机器一直在为我们执行琐碎的任务，使我们能够摆脱许多重复性工作所带来的苦差事。事实上，国际机器人联合会指出，现在制造业平均每 10,000 名员工拥有 74 台机器人。这比 2015 年的 66 个有所上升。General Manager of Digital Customer Engagement Solutions at tech firm Nuance, Bernard Louvat, believes that ‘AI is a big threat to low-skilled jobs, no question.’ He also thinks that AI chatbots will oust most call centre staff within a decade. When you consider that a large telecoms company like AT&T employs around 100,000 call centre staff, that’s a lot of people on the dole.科技公司 Nuance 的数字客户参与解决方案总经理 Bernard Louvat 认为，“毫无疑问，人工智能是对低技能工作的一大威胁。”他还认为，人工智能聊天机器人将在十年内驱逐大多数呼叫中心工作人员。当你考虑到像 AT&T 这样的大型电信公司雇佣了大约 100,000 名呼叫中心员工时，很多人都在失业。And that’s just one industry. A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute, a private sector think tank, states that nearly two thirds of all jobs could have at least 30% of their activities automated by 2030.这只是一个行业。私营部门智库麦肯锡全球研究所最近的一份报告指出，到 2030 年，近三分之二的工作岗位可能至少有 30% 的活动实现自动化。However, McKinsey also believes that this new technology will also ‘create new occupations that do not exist today, much as technologies in the past have done.’ As the horse gave way to the car, hostlers became mechanics and mechanised manufacturing drove up wages and created more long-term roles than it destroyed. In fact, figures from the World Bank have shown that despite a 2.2 billion rise in population between 1991 and 2017, global unemployment has fallen by 0.3%.然而，麦肯锡也认为，这项新技术还将“创造出今天不存在的新职业，就像过去的技术一样。”随着马让位于汽车，房东变成了机械师，机械化制造推高了工资和创造的长期角色多于破坏的角色。事实上，世界银行的数据显示，尽管 1991 年至 2017 年间人口增加了 22 亿，但全球失业率却下降了 0.3%。‘It’s an evolution of work’ says Ian Barkin, co-founder of Symphony Ventures, a robotic process automation specialist. As low-skilled jobs are taken on by AI, people will need to learn new skills. ‘This calls on us to focus on up-skilling, Technology can lead to job reductions but it doesn’t have to,’ says Barkin.“这是工作的演变”，机器人过程自动化专家 Symphony Ventures 的联合创始人伊恩·巴金 (Ian Barkin) 说。随着人工智能从事低技能工作，人们将需要学习新技能。“这要求我们专注于提高技能，技术可以导致裁员，但并非必须如此，”巴金说。Whether or not robotics and AI will leave us all jobless remains to be seen. Current views on the subject are mixed. Increased automation could indeed lead to a loss of some jobs, but at the same time is likely to create many more as new skills are required. Will they balance out? I’ll get my AI assistant to get back to you on that one.机器人技术和人工智能是否会让我们所有人失业还有待观察。目前对该主题的看法参差不齐。自动化程度的提高确实会导致一些工作岗位的流失，但与此同时，由于需要新技能，可能会创造更多工作岗位。他们会平衡吗？我会让我的 AI 助手回复你。词汇表livelihood 生计redundant 失业的，被裁员的vocation 工作menial（工作）枯燥的、不体面的，带贬义drudgery 苦工，辛苦乏味的工作repetitive 单调重复的employee 公司员工，雇员low-skilled job 低技能工作oust 赶走、夺取staff 全体工作人员on the dole （英式表达）靠领取救济金生活industry 行业、产业occupation 职业wage（尤指给体力劳动者支付的）工钱、报酬role 工作take on 承担（一份工作）up-skill （通过培训）提升技能jobless  失业的

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