When you watch the daily flood of executive orders, social media posts, and unconventional appointments coming from the White House, it’s easy to dismiss it as chaos. But what if there’s a method to the madness?
Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize-winning economist and MIT professor known for his work on institutions and political economy, has been watching closely. In a recent Bloomberg interview, he laid out a theory that should concern anyone who cares about the long-term health of American democracy.
The Core Theory: Centralizing Power
Acemoglu doesn’t see randomness. He sees a pattern:
This framing recontextualizes everything. The tariff threats against allies, the unusual cabinet appointments, the public attacks on institutions—they’re not disconnected impulses. They’re pieces of a strategy to concentrate executive power while weakening the checks that constrain it.
Why Norms Matter More Than Laws
One of Acemoglu’s key insights is the role of norms versus laws. Many of the constraints on presidential power weren’t written into law—they were maintained by political culture and expectations.
Previous presidents didn’t ask the DOJ to go after enemies. They didn’t invoke emergency powers as pretexts. They divested from business interests. Not because it was illegal to do otherwise, but because it was understood as unacceptable.
Once those norms are broken—and the political consequences fail to materialize—they’re gone.
The Floodgates Problem
Perhaps most concerning is what this means for the future. Acemoglu isn’t just worried about the current administration:
In other words, this isn’t about one president. It’s about permanently expanding what future presidents—of any party—can do. The precedents being set now will outlast this administration.
What About the Markets?
Some have hoped that financial markets would act as a constraint—that bond vigilantes or stock selloffs would force course corrections. Acemoglu is skeptical:
The markets aren’t designed to be a check on political power. And the administration has shown it’s willing to accept short-term market pain for its broader agenda.
The Institutional Question
Acemoglu’s broader academic work, including his book Why Nations Fail, argues that strong institutions are the foundation of long-term prosperity. Weak institutions lead to extractive economies where those in power use the state to enrich themselves at everyone else’s expense.
The question he’s now grappling with: Is the U.S. moving in that direction?
It’s a sobering analysis from someone who has spent his career studying how democracies succeed—and how they fail.
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