Aaron Levie
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
and digital gold, all of those things can actually kind of make sense and be a bit rational and improve things. And then, unfortunately or not, depending on your views, there was this other sort of fractal event that happened, which was, oh, let's also use these things as a means of kind of creating a virtual currency and equities and tokens for anything, where that then runs into
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
basically the sec remit of like are these things securities or not and is there insider trading or not and can anybody issue them at any time and promote them on twitter or not and so so you know i think to some extent if you get back to like crypto 1.0 which was like this is a this is a financial infrastructure i think you would have avoided a lot of the the sort of noise and challenges with with crypto now i don't know you can't put the you can't put it back in the bag
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
But, but there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people, some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And, and, and at the same time, they would obviously, they would sort of claim, well, that's just the same as a, as an aftermarket, you know, a seat to a concert. And yet another group would, would be treating this as, as effectively, you know, a security. And so I don't know how you're ever going to reel that in without some people being upset, you know, within the crypto community.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Sorry, did I already get rotated out based on? Well, yeah, basically.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Our roads were really bad back then, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Aaron might be there. Aaron, where are you going for the holidays? Oh, actually, we'll be in **** next week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Just at the hotel.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
two just quick thoughts. One, Patrick Carlson had a tweet yesterday that basically said this sort of this, this big misinformation kind of created by, by people that want to be slow is that you, you have to sort of choose two of fast, good and cheap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And, and I think basically, you know, Elon's companies have sort of always effectively kind of proven the opposite, which is, which is actually, if you just like start to ask the question, like, why does that thing have to cost as much? You know, if you're building a rocket or designing a car or developing batteries, like why, you know, if you just do ground up, why does it have to cost as much?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so so it's interesting is that that probably if most people looked at what the government was spending on, they wouldn't even feel like like, you know, it's not even helping them in the disaster relief sense of, you know, I think like that. There are probably actually people that actually do experience the benefits of disaster relief.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
It's actually just all of the overhead that we've created to getting anything done in the government that could actually make the government better serve all of the constituents. I was talking to you know, sort of a nameless individual in the government the other week, where by Congress, they have to hire contractors to do work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And the contractors, the contracting firms charge them two and a half times the sort of cost of an individual employee that they could otherwise hire. And so now they have to outsource the work and they don't have any accountability mechanism for that contractor. And so I think there's not a single American that could look at that and say, this is like actually working well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah, we are spending more money to do less. And the ultimate outcome is actually lower quality. And so so you have to at some point just kind of do a little bit of a reset moment. And that's obviously the upside of Doge is like, it's like, it breaks every rule of us thinking about how, how you would actually go and attack this problem. We thought you'd attack it through meetings.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You know, it turns out if you didn't get crushed during the post-COVID period, you can just keep cranking. So that's what we've been doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And we would do it through congressional, you know, sort of processes and research. And it's actually just, it is, you know, obviously a much more sort of founder startup oriented way to approach this. There's gonna be lots of things that are broken glass around the edges. There's no question. But I think what's interesting about this week's event is,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think that there's been this underlying kind of notion of like, you know, Elon and whatnot at all, you know, don't understand the government enough to be able to change it. And it might actually be the case that the government doesn't understand Elon in the sense of like, he will just see this thing through.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And the tools at his disposal and Doge's disposal is sort of, you know, completely unprecedented in terms of the ability to put anybody in Congress on notice if you know, if basically they are promoting things that are not making the country better. So the thing that we saw this week was actually that playing out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Everybody's been wondering, well, what are the actual, you know, what are the formal mechanisms Doge has to accomplish and enact change? And it's like, you just saw it. Like they can just create enough visibility and spotlight on the problem that it causes a level of discomfort in supporting moving forward with whatever that thing is. And so I think it's interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No opinion on the actual elements of the bill other than from a process standpoint and a new kind of case study of how this is going to play out is I think we're seeing some early indication of what Doge will be able to do.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I mean, so to give some credit, you know, you have Ro Khanna supporting it. You have Fetterman supporting it. Bernie Sanders, you know, everybody. Yeah, Bernie Sanders had a good call out for Elon. You have everybody has their thing in the government budget that they don't like. So assuming that they see that as something Doge can contribute to, you could probably get actually broad support.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
You know, there's a classic, you know, sort of reflex within within probably Democrat Party on at this point, just because of Elon's support of Trump. That if something is an Elon project, they're going to instantly respond no matter what the thing is as a negative without kind of actually saying, does this actually support actually something I do agree with?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
That's going to be true of both sides. Michelle Obama was like, let's get kids healthy. And all of a sudden, now it's in vogue to do that. So I think we're just in an environment where anything will become partisan.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
What's interesting is that because of the, you know, some of the cross-party elements of Trump and now his cabinet is it might pull in more of the Democrat Party than would usually happen. And I think because of Elon and the people that are surrounding Trump, you probably have a bit more air cover for the Rokanas of the world to also step up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Because if it was like Steve Bannon and Trump doing Doge, it would be like, okay, maybe this is not the thing to lend credibility to for pure political reasons. If you have some of the best entrepreneurs that are out there actually literally in the cabinet driving this, at some point, it is an IQ test if you're on board or not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Centrisex. Based on what you guys were just talking about before this recording started, I have no idea what we're in for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
There was a brief week in 2021 where the thought kind of crossed my mind. Yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
This is this is sort of not not the part of politics I think about as much. So I'll leave that up to you as the other left leaning moderate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We have a very sophisticated audit committee that prevented the action. Will you do this for me? Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We just did a convert, so we're probably $600 or $700 million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, I mean, I can't add that much more to this. I think there's probably a little bit of a disconnect at times from the, let's say, the voting public and broad constituents from then those that have sort of seen this in real life being inside of a company having to do a startup and scaling up and just the perverse incentives to build bigger teams, spend more.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Your project then is more important the more dollars it gets. We have all of these systems in place, which is the stuff that gets attention are the things that you spent more on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So you have all these weird incentives to actually have your thing literally cost more, to have more overhead because you've brought in more contractors into the project that then you're going to get some kind of future benefit from in some way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So you have a lot that is sort of fully broken in this and there's no – it's hard to imagine any other way to veer off from that path other than something that does shake things up as much as Doge is doing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I'll just throw out one more thing on this because I think the branding of Doge is often the efficiency side, which people always go to the spend side. But the corollary to that is the regulations that obviously are expensive to maintain. And that's what creates layers and layers of overhead on reviewing everything that's coming in then to the government.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And, you know, unfortunately, we have great examples in California where literally we spend more to do less. And it's because we've ratcheted up these layers and layers of regulation. And I have friends literally doing climate tech.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
In climate tech, you couldn't imagine something more probably left-leaning Democrat that they can't actually get things done in California, the state that you would imagine to be the most kind of climate-first friendly state because of the amount of regulation that prevents them from getting things done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So, you know, there's actually this like, you know, total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs. Like all of the things get solved, the more efficient you get, you know, kind of writ large on all of the topics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Can I just get one more random example? Feel free to edit it out. Chamath, you'll like this because it came out of Meta. Have you followed the Z standard compression library from Meta? No. So this open source library, kind of a next gen compression on data. And we finally, it took us probably too long, but the team worked insanely hard, implemented this compression algorithm.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
We literally, our uploads and downloads got faster. we spend less money on networking and compute. And it took some re-engineering of the system. But that's just not a concept that people go into problem solving with, which is like, what if the thing actually was cheaper to run and it was better?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so think about all the systems of government that could just be upgraded and then you would spend less money actually maintaining them. I mean, we spend... you know, hundreds of billions of dollars, way too much on legacy infrastructure, technology. We could automate more. You could spend way less money and then get better outcomes. So this is just happening everywhere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And I don't think people realize the scale of the opportunity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, no. Jump the fence. This is... That was all crazy pills when I just heard. There...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think there's like 10 higher psyops you would do if you wanted to get us to have a collapsing economy than going after drone deliveries. What would they be? Well, first of all, I think you'd have AI do a robot. I like conspiracy corner. I think you'd have a robot AI thing that runs amok. That's a good idea.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Robocop. Yeah. Yeah, I think that would be way sooner than you worry about food delivery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I'm liking Geiger these days. Oh, you're into Geiger.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Geiger Capital is good. I read them all. PC Braggs? PC Braggs? I think the nighttime thing would be, it would be at least typical of this government to do a Streisand effect of of just like, maybe if we cover it up, nobody will see. And then obviously it's the biggest thing. So yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Gary Gensler said he's super happy. I'm going skiing. That's enough. I'm going skiing. I thought it was cool how he read the entire congressional bill earlier.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
J. Cal loves to filibuster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think it's a strong pick. So... Let the genuflecting begin. Go for it, Aaron. So Crypto, I'm a little bit indifferent on. You know, I haven't, you know, we haven't spent much time there, leaned in much there, but on AI... I think is a very strong pick. And I think you want somebody that has a general deregulation, anti-regulation bent at this stage in the evolution of the technology.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think there's risk of slowing down too much progress right now. And I think he'll provide some good... parameters and principles around how to avoid that. So I think very strong. And then crypto, again, don't know too much about. And then we'll see the rest of the topics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I mean, we have a very similar model as what Shma said, which is we're agnostic, so we work with multiple AI vendors. But I think a friend deep in AI land a couple years ago, right before ChatsBT, said there's no secrets in AI. And I didn't totally understand kind of at the time. It hadn't registered what that meant.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
But very quickly, it kind of became obvious, which is the research breakthroughs sort of propagate insanely quickly across the AI community.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so back back to this Moss framework, if you just think about it as if the research effectively becomes open at some point in time quickly enough, because either the researchers move or people publish it or whatnot, then it really is a compute game and then maybe a data access game. And that means that there's four or five at scale players that can that can fund this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And I think as we've seen in other areas where it's an infrastructure play, you eventually have the underlying service. With enough competition, you have the underlying service eventually trend toward the cost of the infrastructure. So what we should expect is that the price of a token in AI land, you know, basically will be whatever the price of running the computers are.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And maybe with like a, you know, plus 10, 20% margin.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Let me give you a fun stat. We give our customers unlimited storage. We have 82% gross margin. So what happened was the price of the underlying storage has gone down by hundreds of times since we started the company. And then all our value is in the software layer on top of the storage.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So we've benefited by this incredible, just ruthless competition between Western Digital, Seagate, other players that are just trying to pack more more, you know, basically more storage density into these drives. And every couple of years, they have a new breakthrough. We're now, you know, upcoming, we're heading toward maybe a 50 terabyte hard drive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
When we started the company, they were kind of 80 gigabytes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah, so back in the day, if we had 10 people in engineering, 80% of them was doing pure infrastructure work. Now, if we have 1,000 people, it'd be inverted in terms of the ratio. So you get more leverage, both as you get the advancements in the technology, but then also as you get scale.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
But all of this is to say, you should basically anticipate a world where, and I think Zuck is this interesting counterbalance on all of this because of open source,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
If at any moment you know that Zuck will basically provide an open source model that is at kind of best in class benchmarks and at the frontier, then there is a limit on how much you can charge for the tokens of your hosted model because anybody will then be able to go host the open model and be able to provide infrastructure around it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So if you always have that counterbalance and the tokens eventually kind of look the same, the output tokens kind of look the same.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
It's actually not even necessarily the case that the that the customer has to pick the open source vendor, they might buy it through an abstraction layer that that is letting them get the benefit of open source, but but still buy through a proprietary.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I believe... In AI? No, no, no. I believe open source causes pricing to always be extremely low.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, not necessarily. You don't? Okay, explain. Because only meta has the scale to be able to provide... I think what Aaron is saying here, let me maybe try to frame it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And it'll go to the cost of the compute, to be clear, with a little bit of margin for the work of- The energy, the physicality of that compute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Now, it's important to step back and say, I still think you could probably have the entirety of the model providers make 10 times more revenue than they do today because we're just literally in like the first percent of the total TAM.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
So it'd be a mistake to think that that has some kind of downward pressure in terms of the long-term economics of these businesses, especially because I think OpenAI's revenue stream is increasingly looking like a SaaS revenue business as opposed to just the API kind of token pricing. So none of this is to provide any sort of color on what would you bet on today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I agree with Chamath that you're going to have maybe not 30 providers, but let's say you at least have five to 10 good choices all competing heavily for the next breakthrough. Like literally this morning, Google had a breakthrough in sort of this reasoning-oriented model from their Gemini family. They're 2.0, yeah. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And so what's incredibly great is it's sort of the best time ever to be building software, assuming that you have a play in the market that lets you remain differentiated. And the key there is just do enough on top of the AI model that there's enough value there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
No, not at all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And just to be clear, are you talking about the EO that went out?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah, yeah. So I think there's... I just don't agree with the TAM compression because I think there's another kind of counter event that's happening that AI is really going after, like services. And so that then conversely expands the TAM to software where IT budgets weren't usually applied to those types of things, but we can get into that in a second. But I think we've already seen...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
I think we've already seen this, though, and it hasn't exactly played out as you're saying. So Zoho is this really interesting business. It's probably a couple billion in revenue at this point. And it's basically a suite of extremely low-cost, affordable software products by category.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
That's not been the reason people don't switch, though.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yeah, I guess the counter, and maybe you'd look at an ERP system or a CRM system or something else, that is sort of- Those things are totally screwed. No, but this is my point, the opposite. The last thing you want to touch is the system that is powering your supply chain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Yep.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
In reverse order, was against SB 1047... It felt like, you know, you had two big issues. One, you probably don't want state-by-state legislation on this topic. That's going to be, you're in a world of hurt if every state has a different approach to this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And then secondarily, if you just look at how it evolved from the very first proposal to the final proposal, and unfortunately, the kind of underlying philosophy that was in the bill, it was very clearly a sort of like viewing, you know, basically AI progress as inherently risky right now. And so it just ratcheted up the different levels of consequence for the AI model developers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
Maybe, so Chamath, just to clarify, are you, there's two different ways to approach the lowering the cost of developing software. One is that it just creates more competitors in each of these categories, which then lowers my price because now there's some downward pressure. Dave's bringing up a different example, which is I'm going to build my own software at effectively the price of zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
The challenge on this, especially the second one, is most organizations don't want to be in the business of having to think about building their own software. They just want it done for them. It's not a core part of their... Your business would be very unique relative to the broad economy, which is like, I want a place to put my CRM records. I want a place to just have my HR get managed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
And I think the downward pricing pressure due to software cost lowering makes total sense. I don't think it's a 10x factor. But, you know, I think that we've always had a long tail of applications that enterprises build. You did it in Microsoft Access. Now you do it in Retool. So the next era of that will be obviously AI built and there'll be 10 times the amount of that software.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie
But it's not obvious to me why that would go after the kind of core, the core systems of running a business because just most companies are like not looking to reinvent the wheel of that.
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And the risk is sort of the second or third order effects of that, which is like, does Zuck then want to release the next version of Llama if you're taking on that much risk? And even the incremental updates, the liability you have In terms of any of the model advancements. And so right now we're benefiting from just an incredibly competitive market between five or six players.
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And you want them running as fast as possible, not having to have sort of this, you know, a whole council before every model gets released because they're, you know, in fear of getting sued by, you know, the government for hundreds of millions of dollars if one person does something wrong with the model. So that was the problem with SB 1047.
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In life sciences- If you want anything in a clinical system, I don't need to tell you guys this, but you have to do a QA test on every single change that ever happens and be able to prove that you tested every single thing.
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So the idea of a probabilistic AI system generating the kind of code for you in a clinical trial workflow, I just think, yeah, it's going to take a lot of change from regulators.
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Yeah, I think actually there's actually no reason why that wouldn't be a good thing if that did happen, to be clear. I think, though, back to Jason's earlier point, though, the counterbalance on the TAM compression is just now the sort of thing that we think of as software. That market now is much larger. Bigger, yeah. That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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But like, that means that if you're selling, let's say $50,000 of security software, you know, maybe that goes down a little bit to, you know, $25,000, but, but you might, yeah, but you might sell $200,000 of new agent.
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It's incredible.
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Is it dollars? We try to make it very simple for people. Yeah.
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That's been the problem with some of the proposals on national legislation. I felt like the first CEO, it didn't have a lot of teeth in it. So it kind of was more like, let's watch this space and continue to study it. The actual current head of OSTP, Arti Prabhakar, a lot of folks in Silicon Valley know her. She's actually very strong, very technical.
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understands the valley well, does not lean into overregulation. So I actually think OSTP has had a pretty good steward, even under Biden. But I think the efforts that Sachs would clearly be leading, I think would lean even more toward AI progress and sort of not accidentally overregulating too early in this journey.
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There was another release last week of an experimental project for browser use. by Gemini, which is another advantage because YouTube has obviously an incredible amount of screen sharing data and videos.
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So, so you have, you know, like, like we think about visual as just like, okay, it's, it's going to be, you know, for, for developing, you know, CG characters or something, but it's, it's actually just like, like just all of the use cases of a computer are also on YouTube.
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And if you go to the AI studio from Gemini, they have a mode where you can turn on your webcam and then you basically, it has full visual kind of access to anything. And so they're cranking. And it's super exciting because you can tell that Google's woken up and they are just on full assault. So, I mean, just in 10 days, the quantum, the AI, open source, Gemini updates.
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It's like every morning you're waking up to a Sundar tweet. that is some new breakthrough.
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I don't think you want to bet against Sam and Greg. You don't want to bet against Elon. You don't want to bet against Sergey now in office with Sundar. You don't want to bet against Zuck. So I think the rankings are kind of less interesting as much as just the fact that it's like game is on. You do not have incumbents that are sleeping at this point. That's just going to push everybody forward.
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So just an incredible time for everybody.
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No, no, just the, I mean, the credit card rails is, I mean, the tax on transactions is obviously insane. So the stable coin being the intermediary for that in the future makes total sense if you could get everybody to kind of coordinate against that. So, yeah.
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Yeah, I mean, I'm sure we want to move on, but I guess, so there's a parallel universe where, so no matter what, like obviously Gensler did not get his arms around this whole thing. So that was a big mistake. But there's sort of like DeFi slash financial crypto where almost everything is deflationary. It improves the rails. If you believe in Bitcoin as this store of value,
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I don't think we would have believed necessarily that it would get done so quickly, but it has. Recall that for four years during the Biden years, we were told for the first three years that the problem didn't even exist. Whenever the videos were published of caravans coming or throngs of people running across the border. We were told that these were cherry pick videos on Fox News. It wasn't real.
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Finally, in the last year of the Biden administration, they said, okay, we're finally going to do something about it. They took some limited actions. They said that doing more than that would require new legislation. Well, all of that was just gaslighting, it turns out. Trump came in, he restored, remained in Mexico, and other policies completely stopped it.
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He had this line at the State of the Union, which I think is exactly right, which is, we didn't need a new law, we just needed a new president. So I think that's area number one. Area number two, I would say, would be the vibe shift in the culture around wokeism and DEI. You know, how quickly we forget about this, but wokeism has completely collapsed. I don't know that anyone is...
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endorsing in a full-throated way. Moreover, beyond just sort of the cultural aspect of it, I think we've had significant policy changes on DEI. Trump has basically ended DEI at the government level. He also signed an executive order ending the use of disparate impact for affirmative action. This is the policy that said that even if you have
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a policy that's applied in a completely neutral and objective way, if it results in a disparate impact where different groups are represented in a different way in the outcomes, then somehow that must be racist. And that led to essentially engineering the results of various populations to basically fit quotas. And I think all of that now has fallen by the wayside.
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And I think that meritocracy and colorblindness are back. The only holdout really has been these universities where Trump is now taking action against Harvard. And I think that ultimately we will win that battle. You see that even in relatively liberal companies, the DI departments have been canceled and they're moving back towards more of a meritocracy.
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So I would say that that's like big shift number two. And I think if any of us had tried to predict that a hundred days ago, we would have thought, yes, Trump will do something about it. But I don't think we would have predicted the total collapse of wokeism and DEI so quickly. And then I'd say the third area is, which is still in flight, is the reprivatization of the economy.
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That's a term that Scott Besson used, I think, that the Trump administration needs to reprivatize the economy. And I like that framing of it. And there's a bunch of different pieces under that. I'd say number one is Doge. Again, ending this hog-wild government spending. I do think that Trump has come into office inheriting a very weak Biden economy.
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that was being propped up by massive amounts of government spending that was not only stimulating the public sector, but it was also goosing the employment numbers as well. And we knew that that spending was unsustainable. We have to do something about it. So I think for the first time in decades, we've actually started to make real cuts in government, real cuts in the federal workforce.
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And look, we'd like to do more, but that is a huge shift in the conversation. There's other pieces of it as well. I mean, President Trump has signed a significant number of executive orders on deregulation. There's also been unleashing energy. He ended Biden's EV mandate and a lot of these like green new scam projects, offshore wind, and he's been encouraging oil and gas exploration.
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So I think there's that. And then I appreciate what Aaron said about tech innovation. We did repeal Biden's exec order on AI, which was 100 pages of unnecessary regulation on AI. We've ended the war on crypto. And I think we're trying to stop the regulatory capture that benefits large incumbents. So you have all these things.
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And there's been other things that have been done on the economy as well. But I do think that this sets us up for a Trump boom in the future. It's just that a lot of these changes take time to play out.
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What do the comments say about you?
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I think it's remarkable how much of a Putin apologist J. Cal's become. I mean, you want to end the war in Ukraine now? I've always wanted to. You're just going to give in to Putin? No, no, no. You're not going to stop Putin?
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Oh, you want to talk to Putin now?
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Yeah. Let me build on that point with respect to Ukraine is we were on a glide path before the Trump presidency. That Biden had put us on a certain path. Kamala Harris gave every indication she would have continued it. What was that path? It was a path of continued escalation and doubling down in Ukraine.
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Recall that it was Biden himself at the beginning of the war who said that if we give Ukraine Abrams tanks and F-16s or Atacoms or HIMARS, or if we allow them to hit targets inside of Russia, it would lead to World War III. He actually used the word Armageddon.
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So at the beginning of that administration, they were very concerned about how an escalatory path could lead us into direct conflict with Russia and World War III. And yet, despite that, at every fork in the road where they had a choice, they ended up doubling down. They gave the Abrams tanks, they gave the F-16s, they gave the HIMARS, they gave the ATAKMS.
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And finally, when Biden was a lame duck in his last couple months in office, they did the most reckless and irresponsible thing, which is allow American weapons to be used to strike targets on Russian soil, not just fighting in Ukraine, but on Russian soil.
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Embracing free market values and the stock market, right? Yes, exactly. Because any decline in the stock market is Trump's fault. So now they're embracing the stock market.
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Moreover, we now know from a New York Times article that just came out in the last few weeks that it was American generals and American intelligence who were planning this war. So when you're talking about striking Russian targets on Russian soil, it's not just the Ukrainians using our weapons. They're using our targeting. They're using our guidance. They're using our satellites.
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I mean, we are deeply integrated in the kill chain. This is the United States being a co-belligerent in the war, hitting Russian soil. That is incredibly reckless and dangerous. I have no doubt that if the Democrats were still in office, we would be in an escalatory spiral right now with the destination being World War III. And I do think that Trump has pulled us back from the brink there.
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There's obviously still more work to do, but I really appreciate the efforts that Steve Witkoff has undertaken where for the first time in three years, we've at least had direct diplomacy with the Russians. We weren't even talking before. We weren't even talking before.
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Let's let's wait and see on that.
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How about Trump bias syndrome on your part? Who, me?
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What are you talking about?
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Well, the ratings are back ever since I came back to the show, that's for sure. The ratings are back, Joe. But is Saks back?
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Well, I'm back as much as I can.
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It's a strange concept.
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Yeah, it's roughly half after work days.
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I haven't missed a flight in about 15 years.
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Oh, am I still on the pod?
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Look, I spent 80 minutes debating this topic with Larry Summers three weeks ago. The point I made then is that we had in this city for 25 years a globalist consensus on trade. that distorted a lot of outcomes. I don't need to rehash that debate. But I'll just recall that Larry Summers' main argument for why this would not work out is that the market was down. Do you remember that?
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Well, we'll be happy to have you as a guest. Okay. Do I have to wear a MAGA hat? Do I have the courtesy MAGA hats at the door? If you want to be a member, obviously there are dues and a membership fee. And I just didn't want to waste your time with an offer that I knew you wouldn't be willing to accept.
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That was his evidence that this wasn't going to work. And it was all about the market not pricing in lower expectations. Well, guess what? The market is actually up since Liberation Day on April 2nd. So what happened three weeks ago was basically a panic in the market over this policy, and the media has been trying to fuel that panic.
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Now, what I said as well is we do have to stick the landing on this. I mean, President Trump shifted the conversation away from this globalist consensus, and he's now redefined the debate, but it is now up to Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, Howard Ludnick, the Commerce Secretary,
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Jamison Greer, the US Trade Rep, and so on, the Trump trade team, to now negotiate these deals, stick the landing. And I agree with you to the extent that the sooner that is done, the better, because it is good to provide business certainty. But the idea that so far, this hasn't worked, I think, again, the main argument against that was the market reaction that now The market's now positive.
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So I think my point is just, we need to give this time to work. I think it's too soon to be judging this policy as if it hasn't worked yet. It needs to be executed properly. And quite frankly, Ryan, I mean, I remember the last time you were on this pod, you were coming on about... Wasn't there like some union deal that was supposed to shut down all the ports and all the shelves would be empty?
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That never happened either. It did happen.
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Okay. I don't remember the shelves being empty, which is now the new panic the media is trying to create. So, look, there's a lot of pants sweating that's occurring here that's being fueled by the media.
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We have to stick the landing. But look. China, over the last 25 years, has been able to strategically annihilate our rare earth processing capability and our ability to cast rare earth magnets. We just sat back and watched as the market basically went to the lowest bidder, which was being subsidized by the Chinese government, which the WTO allowed them to do.
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And now we have a critical dependency in our supply chain on China for basically every electric motor in every product, including cars. That was crazy. We should not have allowed that to happen.
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So we needed to shift the political conversation to recognize the ways in which free trade led to unfair trade and created unacceptable dependencies for the American economy.
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That's true for founding members who have additional benefits, but there's also a lower level that's the more reasonable membership level. So I think people are getting a little bit carried away with that number.
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Yeah, there's like 10 founding members who have that level, and then there's a lower level for the more average member.
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Aaron, where are you with this? Hold on, hold on. This is one last point. We're going to move on to the next topic. Excuse me. You didn't call me for 40 minutes. I just want to make one final point. Aaron. Here he goes. Aaron, where were you with this perfect plan? Yeah. Where were you with this perfect plan before Liberation Day? I was telling Kamala about it. You were telling Kamala. Okay, great.
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He was.
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All the people who suddenly know what the perfect plan is and how to perfectly execute it, no barrel rolls, had nothing to say about this topic for 25 years. And all of a sudden, they've come forward with their perfect plans.
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Yes. All right.
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The liberals love the stock market.
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So first of all, I think you're giving a little too much credit to Manus. They didn't come up with the agents. But I do think that they have a very good demo. And it's hard to know exactly how real it is because not everyone's used it. And it's from China. It's from China. I'll get to that in a second. If you go to their website, you can see a bunch of their demos.
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Are we talking about J-Cal specifically, or what are we talking about?
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And I do think that what they deserve credit for is advancing the ball on the UI paradigm. And it's not that other people weren't doing this. I mean, I think notably Anthropic was doing this with its operator product. But the basic idea is is that you've got this two-pane view. And in one window, you've got the standard chatbot interface.
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And then in the other view, you can see what the agent is doing. And that agent has the ability to toggle between currently four apps, their search, browser, code terminal, and document editor. And so when you give Manus a task, the first thing it does is create a to-do list in the document editor. You can kind of see it there.
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And then it works sequentially to achieve each of those tasks and then puts an X on them there. And you can kind of see it working. And I think what's cool about the demo is just the way that it seamlessly toggles between those four apps. And you can see what the AI agent is doing. And it's browsing the internet. It's searching for things. It's writing documents.
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It's crossing things off its to-do list. Now, I think it's pretty easy to imagine where this goes, which is you'll be able to connect an agent to all of your SaaS apps. So it won't just be four applications. It'll now be connected to dozens of applications, including ones that already have your data. And it's going to know what actions it's possible to take in those apps.
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No, look, it's very simple. We want a place to hang out in D.C. All of us have been to clubs like the Battery or I don't know if you go to L.A. Malibu Beach House. There's Malibu Beach House. There's Bird Street Clubs. There are places in Palm Beach that are really cool in any event. We wanted a place to hang out, and the clubs that exist in Washington today have been around for decades.
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So when it creates its to-do list, there's a much wider range of things that it can accomplish. And in fact, there's a new standard called MCP, which is taking off like wildfire, which is built specifically to enable agents to connect with applications and understand the data and understand the actions that are possible in those SaaS applications.
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So look, Manus is just the tip of the iceberg here. I think this will become a very standard UI paradigm. That's the reason why I mentioned it, not because I am pre-declaring them to be the winner in the space, but just because I think there's a lot of talk about agents and I think it's hard to conceptualize what that means without just seeing it visually.
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They're kind of old and stuffy. To the extent there are Republican clubs, they tend to be more Bush-era Republicans as opposed to Trump-era Republicans. So we wanted to create something new, hipper, and Trump-aligned. Since I'm in the government, I can't be an owner, but I told him I'd be happy to be member number one. And so I said, great, let's do it.
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And so we're creating a place for us to hang out. That's basically it. We want a place to go where you don't have to worry that the next person over at the bar is a fake news reporter or even a lobbyist or something like that who we don't know and we don't trust.
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So it's like any private club. You want to go somewhere that's highly curated. This private club movement's happening all over the country, not just Washington. But we're creating something that didn't exist before in D.C., which, again, is younger, hipper, Trump-aligned Republican.
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I don't know where this is coming from. I don't even think we're at the peak yet.
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Look, I would separate change management issues, which are always going to be important and there's always going to be big ones whenever there's a big disruption, especially in enterprise and especially around compliance and legal and all that kind of stuff. I would separate that from the impact of the underlying technology trend.
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And I don't think the impact has come anywhere close to peaking yet. And in fact, I would say the rate of progress is exponential right now on at least three key dimensions. So number one is the algorithms themselves. The models are improving at a rate of, I don't know, three to four times a year. They're not just getting faster and better, but qualitatively, they're different.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Remember, we started with pure LLM chatbots. Then we went to reasoning models. And the difference there is with a chatbot, it's like kind of a smart PhD or college student giving you an answer off the top of their heads. The reasoning models, it's more like the PhD saying, okay, let me go off and think about that. Let me do a project on that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And it could work for 30 seconds or a couple of minutes. I mean, as much compute as you want to throw at it. And it will break down your complicated question into a bunch of sub-questions and then it'll try different approaches. And it can validate some of those approaches and come back to you with a much more impressive answer. And if you've been using like,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
the Grok three deep research or the new chat GPT-03 to do these types of new reasoning models, it's pretty mind blowing what they're capable of. Have we even come close to figuring out how to tap the potential there, especially in an enterprise context? No. But my point is that the rate of progress on the algorithms is again, three to four times. Yeah, you're right. Let me just pull up here.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Well, I was trying to lay out the dimensions of which progress is proceeding exponentially. So one is the algorithms, which is not just quantitative, it's also qualitative. We didn't even get to the agents part of it yet, but that's the next big leap after reasoning models. We're just starting to scratch the surface there. Then you've got the chips.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
I don't think anyone would pay to join that, though. It's the problem, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
I mean, the chips are getting better at, I don't know, three to four X a year. We've gone from the H100 to the H200. Now we're on the GB200. We'll be at GB300 soon. We'll be
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
No, no, no. They're getting the chips themselves, depending on how you measure it. Each generation of chips is probably three or four times better than the last. Okay. And NVIDIA is back to rolling out new chip, new generation products roughly annually. And I'm just using them as one example. Obviously, there are other companies as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
So basically the leap from Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin, I guess, will be in next year. And then I think Feynman's coming after that. I mean, really an astounding rate of progress. It's not just the individual chips that are getting better. They're figuring out how to network them together, like with NVL72. It's like a rack system to create much better performance at the data center level.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And that would be like the third area where you're seeing basically exponential progress. Just look at the number of GPUs that are being deployed in data centers. So when Elon first started training Grok, I think they had maybe 100,000 GPUs. Colossus was 100,000, correct. Right. Now they're up to 300,000. They're on the way to a million. Same thing with... OpenAI's data centers, Stargate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And within a couple of years, they'll be at, I don't know, 5 million GPUs, 10 million GPUs. And you see that on the power side, right? You're going from 100 megawatt data centers to 300 megawatts. We're just starting to now see the first gigawatt power data centers. I don't even think they're live yet, but this is where they're trying to get to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we could be at 5 or 10 gigawatt data centers in the next, I don't know, several years. So my point is just, look, the algorithms, the chips, and the data centers are all improving or scaling at a rate of, I don't know, three to four X a year. That's 10X every two years, okay?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Where people don't understand exponential progress is that if you're getting better at 10X every two years, that doesn't mean you'll be at 20X in four years. It means you'll be at 100X, 100X. So the models, the chips, and the data centers will all be 100 times more powerful in four years let's say at the end of this presidential term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
So you multiply those things together, the algorithms, the chips, and then the raw compute that's available, you're talking about a million X increase, some of which will be captured in price reductions, some of it will be in the performance ceiling, and then some of it will just be in the overall amount of AI compute that's available to the economy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
But the impact of this thing is going to be absolutely massive. And I think people still don't even appreciate that fact because they don't understand exponential progress. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
What's happening right now, the reason why the progress is so rapid in coding assistance. And I think, you know, you're right that Anthropic with, was it Claude 3.7? Yeah, I think they're the leader.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And in fact, I think the Manus demo that we showed, it's not entirely a wrapper on Claude because they actually, they do a number of different things, but I think they are significantly using Anthropic for the
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
code assistant part of it in any event the reason why the progress is so rapid with coding is because code compiles and you can determine objectively whether it works or not you can validate it and so that makes it a perfect area for ai to get better at through reinforcement learning and test time compute is ai tries a bunch of things it sees what works it sees what compiles sees what the user then accepts and then to be able to learn to iterate based on that that's why
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Coding right now is really the big breakthrough application and use case. But it's not going to be the only one. I mean, math is another good area where I think AI is improving rapidly, again, because math, you have proofs, and you can look at the results and see if it validates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Now, I think one of the big questions in terms of AI progress is how extensible is the progress to other areas that don't easily validate that way? So for example, legal work, is I think a really good area for AI, but how do you validate that is correct?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Or you could hire like a thousand lawyers or experts in the area to basically do, you know, reinforcement learning through human feedback.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
The progress isn't going to be as rapid because it's harder to validate. Absolutely. But my guess is that once they figure out how to nail coding, math, and the things that are easily validated, they can move to the things that are harder to validate. But I think this is one of the big questions is whether, I think people just kind of assume that AI progress will be equally fast in all areas.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And I think it's possible that AI gets really good in some areas, better than human. Yeah. But it's sort of childlike in other areas. And that's a possible outcome.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
That, by the way, is another major trend line, which is that the new applications that we talked about are all much more token intensive. So we went from basic LLMs, which don't require that many tokens to give you an answer, to the reasoning model, where you can spend a thousand times more tokens just getting one answer to a question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
And now the agents are going to be even more token intensive than that. So the amount of compute required to serve all these new applications is going to be massive, which is why I think the CapEx build out actually makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Did I miss a flight? It's a strange concept.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
I haven't missed a flight in about 15 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Yeah, thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Well, I would highlight three main areas that I think are big accomplishments for the Trump administration in the first 100 days. So number one has to be the border. Like Jamal said, I think you have to give the administration an A-plus on this. They've completely stopped the border crisis.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
I think we all knew that Trump would take action on this because it's one of the main issues he campaigned on. But I think if you had asked any of us four months ago, would this problem be completely solved, meaning border apprehensions completely stopped, border completely sealed within the first 100 days?