Aaron

more than a year and a half in which Hamas has really fought a dogged war of attrition in the face of a devastating Israeli military campaign. This time, Netanyahu says, the Israeli military would seize control of large chunks of the Gaza Strip. They would basically capture them and stay there instead of going in and withdrawing as they often did during the war.

As part of this offensive, at least according to the declared plan, many Palestinian civilians would be displaced to southern Gaza. And at the end of the operation, Netanyahu has promised the public, Israel would effectively have complete security control of the Gaza Strip.

As part of this offensive, at least according to the declared plan, many Palestinian civilians would be displaced to southern Gaza. And at the end of the operation, Netanyahu has promised the public, Israel would effectively have complete security control of the Gaza Strip.

Exactly. But even though the Israeli military has already formally announced the start of the operation, you know, Israeli forces on the ground have not actually moved that much farther. We haven't seen them sweep through major Palestinian cities like Khan Yunis and Gaza City the way that they did during the first year of the war.

Exactly. But even though the Israeli military has already formally announced the start of the operation, you know, Israeli forces on the ground have not actually moved that much farther. We haven't seen them sweep through major Palestinian cities like Khan Yunis and Gaza City the way that they did during the first year of the war.

If Israel really wants to do this, and let's assume for a moment that this is what they want to do, despite the potential cost for Israelis and Palestinians alike, there are still a number of factors that I think are giving them pause. One of them is definitely the hostages. So around 20 of the hostages in Gaza are still believed to be alive.

If Israel really wants to do this, and let's assume for a moment that this is what they want to do, despite the potential cost for Israelis and Palestinians alike, there are still a number of factors that I think are giving them pause. One of them is definitely the hostages. So around 20 of the hostages in Gaza are still believed to be alive.

There are the bodies of more than 30 others that are presumed dead. But there is absolutely a fear in Israel that a massive military campaign in Gaza could significantly endanger or kill the remaining hostages that are still alive. Another factor is Netanyahu himself.

There are the bodies of more than 30 others that are presumed dead. But there is absolutely a fear in Israel that a massive military campaign in Gaza could significantly endanger or kill the remaining hostages that are still alive. Another factor is Netanyahu himself.

Netanyahu is described by his biographers and people who know him well as somebody who's fundamentally very cautious and sort of a political chameleon. Throughout the war, he's really refrained from making any big strategic decision about the future of Gaza, about what would be in the enclave in the so-called day after the war ends.

Netanyahu is described by his biographers and people who know him well as somebody who's fundamentally very cautious and sort of a political chameleon. Throughout the war, he's really refrained from making any big strategic decision about the future of Gaza, about what would be in the enclave in the so-called day after the war ends.

This contrasts rather sharply with some of his coalition partners, who are much more committed to permanent Israeli rule in Gaza and to building Jewish settlements in Gaza. Netanyahu is much harder to pin down. And so far, he appears to have successfully avoided having to make that big decision about what the future of Gaza should be.

This contrasts rather sharply with some of his coalition partners, who are much more committed to permanent Israeli rule in Gaza and to building Jewish settlements in Gaza. Netanyahu is much harder to pin down. And so far, he appears to have successfully avoided having to make that big decision about what the future of Gaza should be.

Exactly. And I think a third factor that could be a potential check on Israel launching this massive offensive is the state of the military. Israel's military has been fighting for more than a year and a half nonstop. And the country's own security establishment is anxious about the feasibility of a protracted campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Exactly. And I think a third factor that could be a potential check on Israel launching this massive offensive is the state of the military. Israel's military has been fighting for more than a year and a half nonstop. And the country's own security establishment is anxious about the feasibility of a protracted campaign in the Gaza Strip.

There's a number of concerns that they have. Israel is already engaged in I mean, really, the longest, most intense war of its history in Gaza, far outstripping the Yom Kippur War in 1973 or the Six-Day War in 1967. The war has really taxed Israel's capacities in many ways, and particularly its soldiers. In recent weeks, we've started to see a real shift in Israeli public opinion. If...

There's a number of concerns that they have. Israel is already engaged in I mean, really, the longest, most intense war of its history in Gaza, far outstripping the Yom Kippur War in 1973 or the Six-Day War in 1967. The war has really taxed Israel's capacities in many ways, and particularly its soldiers. In recent weeks, we've started to see a real shift in Israeli public opinion. If...

In the early days, right after the Hamas attack on October 7th, the Israeli public was almost totally unified behind the campaign in Gaza. The question is now much more fraught. We've seen opinion polls that show that a majority of Israelis support a deal that would free the hostages in exchange for ending the war.

In the early days, right after the Hamas attack on October 7th, the Israeli public was almost totally unified behind the campaign in Gaza. The question is now much more fraught. We've seen opinion polls that show that a majority of Israelis support a deal that would free the hostages in exchange for ending the war.

And I think there is also a growing sense among Israelis of how long can this really last? Does this war really still have a purpose or has it lost its way? I interviewed one reservist who described how he couldn't shake the feeling that Israel was sinking into the sands of Gaza. That...