Ada Palmer

Palmer designed the simulation as alternate history, not a reconstruction.

She gave each historical figure resources and goals reflecting their real circumstances, but deliberately moved some characters in time so that students who already knew what happened to Italy in this period would know they couldn't have the correct outcome even if they tried.

That frees everyone to pursue their goals rather than a corrected choices.

She set up the tensions and actors to simulate the historical situation, then left it run its course.

The simulation captures how papal elections were never isolated events.

While cardinals compete for St.

Peter's throne, the crowned heads of Europe maneuver for influence.

In the Renaissance, Rome controlled marriage alliances and annulments, could crown or excommunicate rulers, distributed valuable benefices and titles, commanded papal armies.

The Pope's allies shifted the political balance to their benefit and rose to wealth and power while enemies scrambled for cover.

War usually breaks out after the election.

Kings are crowned, monarchs unite, someone is invaded, Palmer writes, but the patterns of alliances and thus the shape of the war vary every year based on the individual choices made by students.

Palmer has run the simulation many times.

Each time certain outcomes recur, likely locked in by greater political and economic forces.

The same powerful cardinals are always leading candidates.

There's usually a wildcard candidate as well, someone whose circumstances bring together with an unexpected coalition.

Usually a juggernaut wins, one of the cardinals with a strong power base, but it's always very close.

The voting coalition always powerfully affects the new Pope's policies and first actions, determining which city-states rise and which burn as Italy erupts in war.

And the war erupts every single time.

And it is always totally different.

Sometimes France invades Spain.