Adam Elga

Here's the case.

Two cosmological theories.

One of them just says it's 50-50 whether you see red or green.

So only...

coin toss, 50-50, red room, green room.

That's theory A. And the second theory is a theory which for sure, one person wakes up in a red room and, I don't know, 100 in a green room.

Could you talk through a little bit about how that, so you wake up and you see red or green, how your way of thinking about it, what verdicts does it say about that case?

Interesting.

Okay.

So it's that there is a boost to the second of the two theories.

It's the same boost whether you see red or green.

And that's it.

So we have to think about whether that's presumptuous or not.

It doesn't seem too bad.

I have to say, at first glance, it does seem to avoid the running off the rails effect of being able to get

arbitrarily extreme verdicts just by cranking up the number of duplicates or the frequency.

It's interesting to think about what priors one would have to have over all the possibilities in advance in order to deliver that verdict by conditionalizing.

I haven't thought that through.

That'd be interesting.

I'll give it a shot.