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Adam Kucharski

👤 Person
346 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So I gave a talk earlier this year and it got posted on YouTube.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

It had conspiracy theories in it and there was a lot of

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

conspiracy uh theory supporters who sort of piled in the comments and one of the points they made is skepticism is good you know it's the kind of world society take no one's word for it you need this you know the this is we're the ones that are kind of doing science and people who just assume that that science is settled are in the wrong so and and again you also mentioned that repetition i mean there's this um

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

phenomenon it's kind of the illusory uh illusory truth problem that if you repeatedly tell someone someone's something's false it will increase their belief in it even if it's something quite outrageous and that mimics that scientific repetition because people kind of say okay but if i've heard it again and again it's almost like if you treat these as mini experiments i'm just accumulating evidence that that this thing is true so it's made me think like a lot about how you've got essentially a lot of mimicry of the scientific method of you know

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

amount of data and how you present it and you know this kind of skepticism being good but i think a lot of it comes down to you know it as well as just looking for these logical flaws but also ability to be wrong you know in in not actually seeking out things that confirm i think all of us you know it's something i've certainly tried to do a lot working on

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

emergencies and one of the scientific advisory groups that I worked on almost it became a catchphrase whenever someone presented something they finished by saying tell me why I'm wrong you know and like if you've got a variant that's more transmissible I don't want to be right about that you know really and it's something that is quite hard to do and I found it particularly for something that's quite high pressure

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Trying to get a policymaker or someone to write, even just non-publicly by themselves, write down what you think is going to happen or write down what would convince you that you're wrong about something.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

I think particularly on contentious issues where someone's got perhaps a lot of public persona wrapped up in something, that's really hard to do.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

But I think it's those kind of elements that distinguish between

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Kind of getting sucked into a conspiracy theory and really seeking out evidence that supports it and trying to just get your theory stronger and stronger.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And actually seeking out things that might overturn your belief about the world.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And it's often those things that we don't want overturned.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

I think those are the views that we all have politically or in other ways.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And that's often where the problems lie.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Thanks.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And as much as I appreciate it, it was not an easy book to write.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

I think at times I kind of wondered if I should have taken on the topic.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

But I think your last point kind of speaks to that.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

I think a core thing is that gap often between what convinces us and what convinces someone else.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

I think it's often very tempting as a scientist to say, you know, the evidence is clear or, you know, the science has proved this.