Adam Kucharski

We also saw a bit of variation, for example, in older age groups, a little bit more pessimism.

Again, as people get through kind of more university degrees,

But there have been some historical examples where this has actually caused quite a big issue.

I mean, the Korean War stands out, for example, where some British soldiers reported things getting a bit sticky and the Americans interpreted that as they were digging in and everything was OK.

I think it's hard because you don't just want to hammer people with numbers.

And it can be very helpful to communicate clearly in language.

And I think there's a lot of phrases where actually amongst a lot of people, it will be quite clear what you mean.

But I think it's particularly important amongst those phrases like realistic possibility to be aware.

And even if we're talking about could or might, perhaps be aware that we might be trying to avoid judgment if we're using those words in the first place.

I mean, I think a lot of it comes to the sort of work I do in my day job where we have to deal with a lot of evidence under pressure, particularly if you work in outbreaks or emerging health concerns.

And often it really pushes to the limits our methodology and how we converge on what's true subject to potential revision in the future.

I think particularly having a background in maths, I think you kind of grow up

with this idea that you can get to these concrete, almost immovable truths.

And then even just looking through the history, realizing that often isn't the case, that there's these kind of very human dynamics that play out around them.

And it's something I think that everyone in science can reflect on, that sometimes what convinces us doesn't convince other people.

And particularly when you have that kind of urgency of time pressure, working out how to navigate that.

Yeah, sure.

So I think it's a problem that's been around for a while and it's based on this game show.

So you've got three doors that are closed.

Behind two of the doors are a goat and behind one of the doors is a luxury car.