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Adam Kucharski

👤 Person
346 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

They wanted to put it on a much sturdier ground.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And what was remarkable, actually, is if you trace this then into the 20th century, a lot of these monsters and these, particularly in some cases, functions which...

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

you know, could almost kind of move constantly, this kind of constant motion, rather than our intuitive concept of movement as something that's smooth.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

You know, if you drop an apple, it kind of accelerates a very smooth rate, would become foundational in our understanding of things like probability, Einstein's work on atomic theory.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

A lot of these concepts where geometry breaks down would be really important in relativity.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So actually,

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

These things that we thought were monsters actually were all around us all the time and science couldn't advance without them.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So I think it's just this remarkable example of this tension within a field that's supposedly concrete and the things that were going to be shunned actually turned out to be quite important.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

science was the thing that got us where we are today.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

You know, the reason that so much normality could resume and so much risk was reduced was development of vaccines and the understanding of treatments and the understanding of variants as they came to the next characteristic.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So it was kind of this amazing opportunity to see this happen faster than it ever happened in history.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And I think ever in science, it certainly shifted a lot of my thinking about what's possible and even how we should think about these kinds of problems.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

But also on the other hand, I think where people might have been more familiar with seeing science kind of progress a bit more slowly and reach consensus around somebody's health issues, having that emerge very rapidly can present challenges.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And even we found with some of the work we did on alpha and then the delta variants, and it was the early quantification of these.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So really the big question is, is this thing more transmissible?

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Because at the time, countries were thinking about control measures, thinking about relaxing things.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And you've got this just enormous social, economic, health decision-making based around, essentially, is it a lot more spreadable or is it not?

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And you only had these fragments of evidence.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

So I think for me, that was really an illustration of the sharp end.

Ground Truths
Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And I think what we ended up doing with some of those was rather than arguing over a precise number, something like delta,