Adam Leventhal

with chat GPT 5.2 already was AGI.

So I had, I think that that's going to be in the next, in the next three years, they're going to stop talking about AGI as this kind of thing in the future that I can talk about as something that's already done, but then super intelligence is going to go away as an aspiration.

Simon, what do you think?

and what are they going to how do they dial their expectations back and and not sort of invert the reason for their company existing well i think that this is going to be part of the ai bust so i think i think in three years we are we will see and again i mean there's no doubt that the frontier models have tremendous value there's tremendous value here there's no doubt about that um but i think we will have boiled off a lot and i think that the we'll be really looking at these things as tools in in three years wonderful wouldn't it would be wonderful this is your

utopian this is my utopian prediction this is that like look the like the the parrots have the you know the the kakapu parrots have their uh extraordinary breeding season and that like humans have jobs that's like those are those that are the the two feel-good stories in fact there's so many parrots that people have to just like domesticate them suddenly that's right new jobs um

So that is among my three-year predictions.

Simon, what are your three years?

Oh, there you go.

Yeah, yeah.

yeah and so to give people contact about the jevons paradox the jevons paradox is a 19th century due to a scottish economist um and who observed that as coal was becoming cheaper more of it was being used um and that that would and that was a paradox that like why is it why are we and the reason we were using so much more of it

is because we are finding new uses for it.

And the question is, the Jevons paradox for software engineering would be, as this becomes much cheaper, do we do much more of it?

So we're not putting people out of work because there's actually much more of it to do.

And the thing that is interesting about Jevons is that Jevons was, that paper is called The Coal Problem.

Because Jevons was, not incorrectly, very worried about running out of coal.

And what did not foresee at all was, of course, the discovery of petroleum and solving the coal problem in a completely different way.

So it'd be interesting to know if we end up... But yeah, so you think in... So in three years, we're going to know that.

I think we will know for certain.

Yes.

Yeah.