Adam Patinkin

Yeah, so if you look at the tariffs, just to size it, the U.S. economy is $30 trillion in GDP. Imports are about $3.5 trillion. Exports are $2.3 trillion, so just about 7.5% of GDP. These aren't big numbers. Canada exports are 25% of their GDP, right? So this is much more meaningful to other countries than it is for the U.S.

Yeah, so if you look at the tariffs, just to size it, the U.S. economy is $30 trillion in GDP. Imports are about $3.5 trillion. Exports are $2.3 trillion, so just about 7.5% of GDP. These aren't big numbers. Canada exports are 25% of their GDP, right? So this is much more meaningful to other countries than it is for the U.S.

And then when you look at the tariffs that we have, so again, remember, it's 12% of GDP is inputs. The tariffs that were announced yesterday, they don't apply to Canada and Mexico, two of our three biggest trading partners that represent a third of our imports. They exempted pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, energy. steel, aluminum, copper, gold, like all these categories are exempted.

And then when you look at the tariffs that we have, so again, remember, it's 12% of GDP is inputs. The tariffs that were announced yesterday, they don't apply to Canada and Mexico, two of our three biggest trading partners that represent a third of our imports. They exempted pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, energy. steel, aluminum, copper, gold, like all these categories are exempted.

And so ultimately, what you're talking about is maybe a mid single digit percentage of GDP is even affected by these tariffs. It's a relatively small number in the grand scheme of things. And then I'll just say one thing to just bring it back to chicken. I've studied the chicken industry for a long time and followed it. And I remember, Russia was always a big importer of chicken from the US.

And so ultimately, what you're talking about is maybe a mid single digit percentage of GDP is even affected by these tariffs. It's a relatively small number in the grand scheme of things. And then I'll just say one thing to just bring it back to chicken. I've studied the chicken industry for a long time and followed it. And I remember, Russia was always a big importer of chicken from the US.

And every 12 or 18 months, there would be some diplomatic issue between the US and Russia. And Russia would pause its imports of chicken for some made-up reason, and the chicken markets would go haywire for a couple of weeks.

And every 12 or 18 months, there would be some diplomatic issue between the US and Russia. And Russia would pause its imports of chicken for some made-up reason, and the chicken markets would go haywire for a couple of weeks.

And then everybody would realize, wait a second, the amount of people eating chicken hasn't changed, the number of people producing chicken hasn't changed, and markets adapt, humans adapt, and we would start sending our chicken instead of directly to Russia, it would be sent to Hong Kong and relabeled, and it would end up in Russia anyways. People find ways around these tariff barriers.

And then everybody would realize, wait a second, the amount of people eating chicken hasn't changed, the number of people producing chicken hasn't changed, and markets adapt, humans adapt, and we would start sending our chicken instead of directly to Russia, it would be sent to Hong Kong and relabeled, and it would end up in Russia anyways. People find ways around these tariff barriers.

And after a couple of weeks, it would settle down and the chicken markets would settle down. And we have many other examples of this, you know, washing machines in the first Trump administration in 2018 to 2020, the same thing happened. And so ultimately, like, yes, in the very short term, could there be additional uncertainty that could affect the economy? Of course. But I think that tariffs

And after a couple of weeks, it would settle down and the chicken markets would settle down. And we have many other examples of this, you know, washing machines in the first Trump administration in 2018 to 2020, the same thing happened. And so ultimately, like, yes, in the very short term, could there be additional uncertainty that could affect the economy? Of course. But I think that tariffs

over time, you know, you just, people adapt, businesses adapt, we figure out our way around it. And maybe a good way to end it, I just want to, I pulled this quote this morning. One of my favorite people who I follow on supply chains and logistics in the US is a guy named Craig Fuller.

over time, you know, you just, people adapt, businesses adapt, we figure out our way around it. And maybe a good way to end it, I just want to, I pulled this quote this morning. One of my favorite people who I follow on supply chains and logistics in the US is a guy named Craig Fuller.

And he tweeted this morning that it's far easier and faster to move a manufacturing supply chain to another country than it was 100 years ago. Things will normalize much faster than most people expect. Supply chain pros that have been paying attention have been making plans for an alternative to global sourcing for the past few years. And I think that's right, Scott.

And he tweeted this morning that it's far easier and faster to move a manufacturing supply chain to another country than it was 100 years ago. Things will normalize much faster than most people expect. Supply chain pros that have been paying attention have been making plans for an alternative to global sourcing for the past few years. And I think that's right, Scott.

I think that tariffs obviously capture a lot of headlines and will add to uncertainty, no doubt. But ultimately, in the long run, I think that we'll figure it out.

I think that tariffs obviously capture a lot of headlines and will add to uncertainty, no doubt. But ultimately, in the long run, I think that we'll figure it out.

Well, I think, I'm not sure if you knew this, but my very first job was working at Wrigley Field as a seat vendor walking up and down the aisles selling peanuts and hot dogs, so I think that you will appreciate that I am a dive hard Cubs fan, and that's for sure where my allegiances lie. In terms of the Bears, invest in the trenches, man.

Well, I think, I'm not sure if you knew this, but my very first job was working at Wrigley Field as a seat vendor walking up and down the aisles selling peanuts and hot dogs, so I think that you will appreciate that I am a dive hard Cubs fan, and that's for sure where my allegiances lie. In terms of the Bears, invest in the trenches, man.