Aidan Donnelly
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And the question has always been who's going to pay, as is the case with most drugs.
You know, when you look at the US moves this year,
The government can really control kind of two areas, Medicare, which is for old people, Medicaid, which is for the poor people.
That's where the real crux hits in terms of drug pricing and it's right across the board.
It doesn't necessarily mean that, you know, that those lower prices go right the way across and, you know, more than likely will not happen.
So you've got a kind of a balance between who's paying the price, what price they're going to pay, and the volume demand that's going to come through as we go through the next good few years in it.
You know, we've seen, you know, like I said, the share price, you know, fall significantly over the last kind of year.
And at the same time, you know, it looks like Lily's in the ascendancy.
But ultimately, you know, with the nature of these drugs, there'll probably be another one or two coming onto the market over the next couple of years.
So you'll see a time to steady out.
Look I think ultimately you know there's obviously been a huge change in the shareholder base in the last year and I doubt anybody that was owning the stock at a thousand is probably owning it now and then you've a lot of people who are going in recently and saying well maybe things have turned for them and
I do think when you look at the valuation and you look at the earnings growth, the forecasted earnings growth is surprisingly low, given the opportunities that you would think would be there.
So I think it's something that the markets have to grapple with now.
And it's just at that point in the cycle where probably the most questions have to be asked.
Yeah, and it's interesting to read the commentary now from both sides of it.
I think given the history that we've seen since this all started in April, nobody really believes it.
They'll accept it now and they'll take it for as long as it lasts.
But I don't think anybody is going to make any major business decisions based on what happened yesterday.
And I think, you know, if you look at it from the Chinese side, we're seeing a lot of the suppliers continuing on to try to diversify their
the countries that they operate in in order to make sure that they're circumventing the straight-up Chinese-US tariffs wherever possible.