Alan Kohler

I mean, what's America going to do?

And Scott Percent can carry on all he likes.

I mean, if China doesn't want to obey the sanctions, they won't.

And there's nothing America can do about it, really.

I think...

You know, America and China are rivals.

They're engaged in a geopolitical contest, which has been going on for a while, obviously, and that'll continue.

But I think the last thing that Scott Percent or anyone wants to do is actually go to war with China, and they won't.

Even if China invades Taiwan, they won't do it.

Thanks, Carrington.

Yes, and the market odds of a rate hike today are 76%.

So it's almost certain, I guess, most of the economists, about roughly three quarters of economists are also saying

a rate hike will take place today.

The market's also saying that there'll be another one this year and probably a third.

So there's a small number of economists who are predicting three more rate hikes this year.

So I do think that if that happens, even if two happen, there's likely to be a recession.

So we're into the second quarter now.

We won't find out what GDP in the first quarter was until June the 3rd, and it's likely to be continued growth.

The second quarter, which is what we're in now, is likely to be negative.

So then the only question concerning a recession is whether the third quarter is also negative.