Alan Kohler

That's true.

So, you know, government spending increases and interest rates are cut.

That's what happened in 2008 with the GFC and again with the pandemic.

So there is a sense, I think, that's fair to say, I think,

The moral hazard, which is where markets tend to believe that everything's going to be fired all the time no matter what and they'll always be rescued, is kind of there.

That's true.

I mean, it was called, it started off being called the Greenspan put, which is when Alan Greenspan was running the Federal Reserve in the US, there was a sense that Alan Greenspan would rescue the markets.

And then that turned into Bernanke and then Janet Yellen and then Jerome Powell.

So I think you're right.

There is a sense that the Fed will always rescue the markets.

I mean, whether that applies to the incoming chairman, Kevin Walsh, who knows?

Yes, I think there is definitely a belief.

The TACO, T-A-C-O, Trump always chickens out, will apply this time as well, as it did with the tariffs last year.

It's obviously a bit more complicated this time because he's not entirely in control of the situation.

So what he's managed to do with Iran is turn it from a failing theocracy...

into a military dictatorship where they are very, very focused and they've suddenly found the power that they've got over the Strait of Hormuz.

Not going to give that up easily.

I think that, you know, markets need to kind of understand that.

They're not at the moment.

They just think it's all about what Donald Trump does.