Alan Kohler

Look, I don't know.

I mean, I do think there's a chance that...

Iran will maintain its control of the Strait of Hormuz now, having got it.

So maybe whatever Trump and US do, Iran will have a toll on the Strait of Hormuz so that it'll be more expensive to sail through there.

And I guess that'll be put onto everyone's prices.

Well, look, Trump yesterday or last night said that they're having productive talks with Iran.

Everything's going to be fine.

They're going to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

So that looks all right, you know.

So I suppose, Sam, my glass is half full at the moment.

Oh, well, look.

This morning I interviewed the CEO of Bega Group, the food company, Pete Finlay, and he said he thought that what's happening will result in 5% to 6% inflation.

So if that's true and it looks like it, then the Reserve Bank will probably be

increase interest rates at least two more times, and there will be a slowdown, at least one negative quarter of GDP, and there'll be a slowdown in the economy.

So will it be a recession?

I don't know, but maybe.

Podcasts, radio, news, music and more.

You get to find out every Friday with me, Alan Kohler, as I sit down with the people influencing the markets, the economy and the ideas shaping our world.

Find That's Business with Alan Kohler on the ABC Business Daily feed, on ABC Listen or wherever you get your podcast.

This podcast was produced on the lands of the Wabakal and Gadigal people.