Alan Milburn

And so they've got DNA from these young people when they were babies.

They followed their outcomes over time, what's happened to their education.

Oh, wow.

Here's the really depressing thing.

When I was there three weeks ago, one of the guys who was running it, John, said to me, look, I can probably predict with a fair degree of accuracy at the age of three or four who's going to be neat, not an education employee.

Yes, at the age of three or four.

And so we know, for example, that you're three times more likely to be not in education, employment or training as a 16 or 17 year old if you haven't been school ready at the age of four or five.

What does school ready mean?

It means that you're able to put your own coat on.

You're able to go to the toilet by yourself.

You're able to hold a book.

You're able to read a few words.

So this is deep.

I mean, not just about what's going on in the labour market, and we can come to all of that, but this goes back to social inequality, lack of opportunity, places that have been left behind.

So this is where it's concentrated.

It used to be a phenomenon that was associated more with young women than young men, and that's changed.

It's now more young men than it is young women.

In good part, for good reasons, because rates of teenage pregnancy have fallen.

And so young women are less likely to have young kids than perhaps they were.

So they're not stuck at home caring for their children.