Alex Ambroz

25 look to be about the same.

Look, it's so far, we're still waiting to get some of the statements in, but what we've heard from allocators so far is it's looking to be somewhere between nine to 12%.

Why does that matter?

The portfolio grinds to a halt.

You know, full stop, literally full stop.

You're making commitments to private asset funds and your cash flow pacing model is telling you to make X number of commitments at this dollar amount size.

But part of that model is also telling you to expect distributions, which will support future commitments as well as support spending policy needs.

If you're not getting those distributions, you can't support the spending policy needs.

And how will you be able to make future commitments without tying up additional capital?

So it becomes, in essence,

a downward spiral of illiquidity.

Tell me about this downward spiral of illiquidity.

Part of what you get with investing in hedge funds, for example, it's very common to see maybe a three year initial lockup, and then you'll have the ability to withdraw capital on a quarterly basis with 90 days notice.

But with private assets, the way you're getting liquidity is from the distributions of cash.

into your portfolio.

And historically, private equity funds, once they sold an underlying firm to a strategic or financial sponsor, great, we've made a sale of one of the underlying firms that we invested with.

Here's the cash from that sale.

Or maybe it's a venture capital fund, and they've taken it all the way up to IPO.

Here's the cash after the lockup, post IPO, usually six months.

Here's the cash distribution to you as a representative LP investor in this fund.