Alex Goldenberg

and creating outcomes.

Traditional insider trading is about someone who knows a merger will happen and trading on that knowledge.

That's wrong, but it doesn't change whether or not the merger happens.

It just turns out whether or not those outside of the company know about it based on insider information.

What we're talking about here is people betting on outcomes that they can directly influence.

a military commander deciding whether to hold a retreat, a diplomat deciding whether to push for an agreement or walk away, the actors themselves that are trading can create the outcomes that they've bet on.

To understand how big this has become, we need context.

Since 2018, the Supreme Court overturned a federal ban on sports betting.

And since then, Americans have wagered roughly $120 billion on sports.

Problem gambling treatment admissions have increased 30% in states with legal betting.

And prediction markets have hit roughly $40 billion in trading volume in 2025 alone.

That's roughly a third of the size of the entire sports betting industry.

And they've been mainstream for less than two years.

And the financial backing is incredibly significant.

Kelshi is valued at $11 billion.

Parent company of the New York Stock Exchange recently invested $2 billion in PolyMarket.

Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, CNN, The Wall Street Journal are now starting to integrate prediction market data into their news coverage.

But here's the crucial difference.

When you bet on the Super Bowl, nobody dies.

But when you bet on Somalia strikes or Ukraine territorial control, you're monetizing human suffering and potentially creating financial incentives for soldiers and officers to influence outcomes that they've wagered on.