Alex Hutchinson

Yeah. So I went down a big rabbit hole on this. I was like, I come from a physics background. I'm a quantitative guy. I want the formula that will tell me when to explore or exploit. And, you know, I guess I apologize for chapter five in my book, which kind of follows that, tries to follow that rabbit hole. Because there is a ton of like... attempts to produce a formula.

And it turns out in any real-world context, the math is ridiculous and becomes very hard to follow. But there are some big principles that come out of the math, but that also are practical in a day-to-day scenario. So One concept is the idea of an uncertainty bonus. We kind of do this intuitively, but I think it helps to think of it in terms of it consciously. When you're considering a decision,

And it turns out in any real-world context, the math is ridiculous and becomes very hard to follow. But there are some big principles that come out of the math, but that also are practical in a day-to-day scenario. So One concept is the idea of an uncertainty bonus. We kind of do this intuitively, but I think it helps to think of it in terms of it consciously. When you're considering a decision,

And it turns out in any real-world context, the math is ridiculous and becomes very hard to follow. But there are some big principles that come out of the math, but that also are practical in a day-to-day scenario. So One concept is the idea of an uncertainty bonus. We kind of do this intuitively, but I think it helps to think of it in terms of it consciously. When you're considering a decision,

you don't automatically opt for the one you know less about or the unexplored road. But the less you know about an option, you give a bonus that's proportional to how little you know about it. So you say, all else being equal, I'm going to take the one that I know less about.

you don't automatically opt for the one you know less about or the unexplored road. But the less you know about an option, you give a bonus that's proportional to how little you know about it. So you say, all else being equal, I'm going to take the one that I know less about.

you don't automatically opt for the one you know less about or the unexplored road. But the less you know about an option, you give a bonus that's proportional to how little you know about it. So you say, all else being equal, I'm going to take the one that I know less about.

So that kind of helps to make sure you're not getting too calcified into that sort of set of habits that you're talking about. It's not the only factor you consider, but it's like... I'm going to add a bonus if it's going to teach me something new or take me down a fresh path. And then the one other... kind of heuristic that I think is useful.

So that kind of helps to make sure you're not getting too calcified into that sort of set of habits that you're talking about. It's not the only factor you consider, but it's like... I'm going to add a bonus if it's going to teach me something new or take me down a fresh path. And then the one other... kind of heuristic that I think is useful.

So that kind of helps to make sure you're not getting too calcified into that sort of set of habits that you're talking about. It's not the only factor you consider, but it's like... I'm going to add a bonus if it's going to teach me something new or take me down a fresh path. And then the one other... kind of heuristic that I think is useful.

This is a sort of approximate way of solving this explore-exploit dilemma. It's something called the upper confidence bound algorithm, and that's the math version. And the way they translate that into regular language is optimism in the face of uncertainty, that you should be optimistic about the choices you make. And what that means in practice is

This is a sort of approximate way of solving this explore-exploit dilemma. It's something called the upper confidence bound algorithm, and that's the math version. And the way they translate that into regular language is optimism in the face of uncertainty, that you should be optimistic about the choices you make. And what that means in practice is

This is a sort of approximate way of solving this explore-exploit dilemma. It's something called the upper confidence bound algorithm, and that's the math version. And the way they translate that into regular language is optimism in the face of uncertainty, that you should be optimistic about the choices you make. And what that means in practice is

is that if you're choosing between options, you should take the scenario with the best case, or the best realistic upside, or the best realistic, best case scenario. So, Realistic isn't in there because it's like, I'm not saying buy a lottery ticket because its best case scenario is you're a millionaire because that's unlikely to happen.

is that if you're choosing between options, you should take the scenario with the best case, or the best realistic upside, or the best realistic, best case scenario. So, Realistic isn't in there because it's like, I'm not saying buy a lottery ticket because its best case scenario is you're a millionaire because that's unlikely to happen.

is that if you're choosing between options, you should take the scenario with the best case, or the best realistic upside, or the best realistic, best case scenario. So, Realistic isn't in there because it's like, I'm not saying buy a lottery ticket because its best case scenario is you're a millionaire because that's unlikely to happen.

But for scenarios that are realistic, it pays to be optimistic. So an example, I guess, would be you're considering different job possibilities. One has a higher starting salary and is stable, and so that's a real positive. The other, maybe less money, a little less stable, but it has a pathway towards your dream job. It has a pathway to what you actually really want to be doing in the long term.

But for scenarios that are realistic, it pays to be optimistic. So an example, I guess, would be you're considering different job possibilities. One has a higher starting salary and is stable, and so that's a real positive. The other, maybe less money, a little less stable, but it has a pathway towards your dream job. It has a pathway to what you actually really want to be doing in the long term.

But for scenarios that are realistic, it pays to be optimistic. So an example, I guess, would be you're considering different job possibilities. One has a higher starting salary and is stable, and so that's a real positive. The other, maybe less money, a little less stable, but it has a pathway towards your dream job. It has a pathway to what you actually really want to be doing in the long term.

All else being equal, it's probably worth taking a shot on that because that's the optimism in the face of uncertainty that I don't know how things are going to turn out, But being optimistic, if things do turn out, that's the one that'll make me happiest. And what the math shows is if you... Individual decisions, all bets are off. It might turn out well, it might turn out poorly.