Alex Imas

If it's going to make it to the S&P 500, it is because it has leveraged AI.

Yeah, exactly.

But then again, I guess it is totally, if you just look at how concentrated the S&P is over time, you know, just like these big tech companies, much more so.

I guess this goes to a fundamental point that it's hard to reason about, about how much of the gains from AI these individual private companies will be able to control.

And this goes to show you that every question is connected to every other, because then that question about whether there's runaway gains connects to questions about recursive self-improvement.

And even if not recursive self-improvement, then continual learning, or online learning, which lets a model learn on the job.

So if it's deployed, it gets to learn more.

And these are just sort of like forecasting technical questions, which then impact, I guess, whether Uganda will have any purchase on the returns of AGI.

But it sounds like your answer really... The reason I'm emphasizing the question is I think both for the messy middle and for developing countries, a recommendation that is often made naively is you got to do some kind of retraining.

You got to do some kind of like...

jobs program, or you got to have them build data centers in our country.

And I think you guys are suggesting something closer to just buy the index of AGI.

That's like a probably much more cleaner and much more likely to succeed strategy.

And yeah, so I don't, I don't, I don't think there's that much of a, an either or there.

Like, I mean, maybe the reason to be pessimistic about this is because one of the reasons the country is poor is that it's a bad education system.

And so becoming the best in the world or retraining people at using AI, it doesn't seem like a particularly promising, particularly promising strategy for this country.

This actually makes me hope even more so than before that the labs do get commoditized or at the very least they go public as soon as possible, but hopefully they just get totally commoditized because

I think AI will be much more popular and, more importantly, will be much more likely to lead to broad increases in prosperity if the gains are just not particularly – it is as hard to capture the gains of AI as it is to capture the gains of electrification.

I mean, electricity doesn't take your job, but... Well, it takes some people's jobs.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.