Alex Turnbull

And I would think it would be wise to not leak from the frying pan into the fire.

But in the short term, I think they will go bananas, yeah.

Certainly.

I think the underlying assumption of what made fossil fuels work was that they were the cheapest thing going for the longest time, and you could assume away the security in the open ocean.

either by dint of the US Navy or by dint of there was no such thing as drones and they couldn't travel 500 miles readily and hit a ship at that distance.

And they didn't cost like the price of a mid-sized car.

All those assumptions are wrong now.

And so one thing that I think we've underappreciated is how, seeing what has happened in the Ukraine war with Ukraine, a mid-sized power, under assault, being able to hit Russian tankers all over the place, that capacity can be developed by America's enemies, by non-state actors, by other threats.

And this should change how one considers the overall situation

price versus risk calculus of fossil supply everywhere.

If you move a very large crude carrier, you assume the insurance is cheap, that it's going to turn up on time, and that it can be unmolested in the open ocean.

And now the problem we have is that

you are under threat through certain bodies of order due to current geopolitical conflicts.

You could be longer term under threat from non-state actors.

And the result of that is that that's a very risky source of supply.

And so you need to consider the risk associated with depending on having signing an offtake from a place where that supply could get shut down for an extended period of time.

And the problem with...

geopolitical shocks is they tend to drag on.

I mean, wars tend to not last a week.

If you have a storm in the Gulf Coast or Australia, okay, not great, but life goes on.