Alex Turnbull

Um, but then there's an enormous range of other, especially petrochemicals that come from Korean refineries, which might not have crude to run in a month, uh, and, or Singapore for that matter.

And there is a real risk that not just on the power demand constraints, but also on the inputs, we are going to have some serious issues.

Um,

What's interesting about this war is it started during a quiet period before earnings, when a lot of companies can't tell investors what their exposures are.

But if you talk to unlisted midstream chemical distributors, this is starting to become very tense.

And it will become extraordinarily tense over the next couple of weeks.

So we've seen a force majeure at Formosa Petrochemicals in Taiwan.

I have no doubt there are going to be more and more of them over time.

And so this will cause constraints in chip production.

It won't be the whole sector will come to a halt at once, but it will start to impact lower value things.

Then it will eventually start to bleed through to the really high value important stuff, NVIDIA and so forth, the longer this goes on.

So it's not that this is going to be very consequential.

And even if you install, even if you can produce the Nvidia chips, if they require certain power electronics or other cheaper stuff to construct the rack to go in a data center and you can't get the cheap stuff, then you can't put it in the data center.

And this could very seriously slow US data center expansion and AI development at the same time as China is probably going to source helium from Russia and will not have any of these material constraints because they have all their supply of oil and a lot of domestic petrochemical production.

So that's also not helpful.