Alex Wissner-Gross

on your portcos, that plugs a hole in their discounted cash flows.

That could be quite attractive, but also seductive for them, in which case the frontier labs maybe get something that approximates a wash sale, and the PE labs get to plug a hole in their discounted future cash flows for the moment that make them look good to their LPs.

Well, Richard Dawkins first, I think hell is frozen over.

Richard Dawkins, as I mentioned in my newsletter, sort of biological deconstructionist in chief, selfish gene extraordinaire.

Even implying that Claude may be conscious, whatever he may mean by that, I think this is an extraordinary moment in, call it the biological philosophy of frontier models, extraordinary moment.

Going back to Greg and Jack, so taking Greg first,

It's difficult to know when Greg says 80% to AGI what he's really thinking.

Historically, going back to the OpenAI-Microsoft discussion, there was the contractual definition at one point between OpenAI and Microsoft that AGI meant generating $100 billion in revenue.

So, Greg may be thinking we're 80% of the way to generating $100 billion in revenue off of our models.

If I had to guess, I'd guess his estimate or his definition is probably something like that.

He may be thinking in revenue terms or, let's say, economic terms, maybe in terms of the supply chain and data center build-out.

When Anthropic, when Jack in particular talks about 60% chance of happening by the end of 2028, that one's a real head-scratcher for me, much more of a head-scratcher than Greg, because Anthropic has publicly said that

almost all of their code at this point is being generated by Claude, and that Claude accounts for substantially all of the training and logic for the next generation of Claude.

So I'm not sure how much more recursive the recursive self-improvement could be at this point.

Maybe he's just throwing out a really conservative outer bound, or maybe he has some thresholds of progress improvement, and there are a few different benchmarks for capturing the rate of recursive self-improvement.

Maybe he has some internal notion of one particular benchmark passing 60% by end of 2028.

But I think on the outer bound, I think Jack's estimate is far too conservative relative to every indication we've seen out of Anthropic to date.

Salim, what are your thoughts here, pal?

Well, Brian, that's quite the hot take.

Do you want to define how or explain how you operationalize AGI?