Alice Evans

So let me add on the Scandinavia point, you know, left-wing progressives may say, oh, Scandinavia is so family friendly. You know, there's universal childcare. It's easier to be a working mother. But actually, the U.S. has higher fertility, right? So that signals to us that that theory isn't working.

So let me add on the Scandinavia point, you know, left-wing progressives may say, oh, Scandinavia is so family friendly. You know, there's universal childcare. It's easier to be a working mother. But actually, the U.S. has higher fertility, right? So that signals to us that that theory isn't working.

And as for the theory that it's all about women's choices and liberalism, how can that explain why fertility is crashing in Egypt, in Tunisia, in Turkey, and in Tamil Nadu, which remain very conservative? So something is happening very recently, maybe in the past 15 years, everywhere all at once, across vastly different economies, across vastly different governance and welfare systems,

And as for the theory that it's all about women's choices and liberalism, how can that explain why fertility is crashing in Egypt, in Tunisia, in Turkey, and in Tamil Nadu, which remain very conservative? So something is happening very recently, maybe in the past 15 years, everywhere all at once, across vastly different economies, across vastly different governance and welfare systems,

and across vastly different levels of liberalism versus religiosity. So those theories that you mentioned seem to do a poor job of the sort of comparative analysis in the very recent global plummet. And going back to Sweden, for example, what there has been in the very recent years is a massive, massive rise in singles, hugely.

and across vastly different levels of liberalism versus religiosity. So those theories that you mentioned seem to do a poor job of the sort of comparative analysis in the very recent global plummet. And going back to Sweden, for example, what there has been in the very recent years is a massive, massive rise in singles, hugely.

There are more and more people living in single-occupier households, and this reflects a global trend.

There are more and more people living in single-occupier households, and this reflects a global trend.

Absolutely. So if we look empirically at the data for a range of countries, we find that increasing number of people are staying single. That is, they are neither married nor cohabiting. So in the US, over half the people between 18 and 34 are neither cohabiting nor married. So they're single. That's the same case in much of Latin America, East Asia, Korea, in China, in South Korea.

Absolutely. So if we look empirically at the data for a range of countries, we find that increasing number of people are staying single. That is, they are neither married nor cohabiting. So in the US, over half the people between 18 and 34 are neither cohabiting nor married. So they're single. That's the same case in much of Latin America, East Asia, Korea, in China, in South Korea.

I chat to all my Chinese students. Many are single, no expectations, no plans, no desires to be married. So that's a massive, massive global friction. So if people are staying single, that is closely correlated. If we look at the data, the decline in people being married or couple is almost one to one with the decline in children. It matches so closely in both the US and China, everywhere.

I chat to all my Chinese students. Many are single, no expectations, no plans, no desires to be married. So that's a massive, massive global friction. So if people are staying single, that is closely correlated. If we look at the data, the decline in people being married or couple is almost one to one with the decline in children. It matches so closely in both the US and China, everywhere.

This is the strongest correlation. It's more closely correlated than anywhere else and across multiple countries. The data is so strong.

This is the strongest correlation. It's more closely correlated than anywhere else and across multiple countries. The data is so strong.

Yes, that's what I think, certainly. So I think we can say, you know, there could be locally specific factors that go on in each place. Each place has its own cultural idiosyncrasies, and I don't want to ignore that. But yes, absolutely. The big shock that's occurred everywhere all at once is we've seen vast improvements in personal online entertainment. So we know, for example, in the U.S.

Yes, that's what I think, certainly. So I think we can say, you know, there could be locally specific factors that go on in each place. Each place has its own cultural idiosyncrasies, and I don't want to ignore that. But yes, absolutely. The big shock that's occurred everywhere all at once is we've seen vast improvements in personal online entertainment. So we know, for example, in the U.S.

So people are spending more. No, but I think that's the thing. I mean, no offense, Ross, but I do blame charismatic people like you. You know, if people want to socialize, to listen.

So people are spending more. No, but I think that's the thing. I mean, no offense, Ross, but I do blame charismatic people like you. You know, if people want to socialize, to listen.

Okay, okay. You're totally innocent. Okay. But we do have this big increase in personal online entertainment, whether it's, you know, watching shows on Netflix, sports bets, you know, online gambling has become absolutely massive across Brazil and Latin America more broadly. You can, you know, go on Pornhub.

Okay, okay. You're totally innocent. Okay. But we do have this big increase in personal online entertainment, whether it's, you know, watching shows on Netflix, sports bets, you know, online gambling has become absolutely massive across Brazil and Latin America more broadly. You can, you know, go on Pornhub.