Alice Evans
speaker
145 appearances
3 recordings
3 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard 11 Mar
Alice Evans’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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I think definitely yes. And I think it would be wonderful if Hollywood promoted that and supported that. And in fact, as a joker last year, I even wrote a comedy script about how Hollywood could support fertility and things like that. But let me add, so even though I'm totally on board with that, and I think that's very important, there are several frictions because...
One, it's very difficult to do cultural engineering today because we have infinite options of entertainment at our fingertips on Netflix and everything. So if you're not that interested in a romantic comedy, you know, in China, a lot of the most popular films are about divorce. So that's another. It's difficult to do cultural engineering.
On top of that, as long as people are hooked on their smartphones, they might not have the social skills to do it. I think another possible mechanism would be to use the tax system and to give massive tax incentives to to people who have children, because that's a positive externality.
So that's a good question. The present evidence suggests that pronatal incentives have not reversed the downward trend. So even when governments do give these goodie bags, that doesn't seem to work. It's possible, however, that were financial incentives sufficiently large, that could change.
So, for example, Hungary has recently suggested to women who have two children will not have to pay taxes again. Now, you know, that's a pretty big giveaway. But, you know, we also need to solve the coupling crisis. So I think, you know, that's one thing to explore. And governments, you know, the Fed, etc., could explore the taxation system.
Definitely, definitely. I think it's difficult empirically, descriptively to deny that. So, for example, in Britain, Muslims have much higher fertility. So Britain will see a big increase in a larger Muslim, more politically active population. So that will have huge political consequences. And so if liberal, secular people don't have kids, they will have less political influence.
We see it in Israel, too. The Hasidic Jews, the ultra-conservative, I think they typically have six kids each. So again, that is changing the political bent of Israel's foreign policy. So every single country, these demographic implications are huge.
So that's a good question. I think in the vast majority of cases worldwide, a very small share of births are IVF. That said, were the technology to have greater success rates and to be more accessible and more affordable, we might see a greater uptake because it addresses a fundamental issue of expanding women's reproductive freedom. So
You know, if people want to spend their 20s finding themselves or focusing on greedy jobs, you know, becoming ultra, ultra demanding, you're climbing the career ladder. And in their 30s, they're still struggling to find someone. But maybe, you know, in their late 30s, they do. Right. So lots of data suggests that people do tend to couple up a bit later. They're coupling up a bit, bit later.
So I can't predict that people are going to eventually couple up. But let's talk about that fraction of society who was single in their 20s, but finds the one at age 40. Right. But then that's the real trouble that at age 40, tick tock and women's wombs are no longer at 100%.
And so that's where for that particular subgroup that IVF could be really, really helpful in enhancing women's reproductive freedoms and enabling the couples that form later to have more choices, to have more freedoms and expand. Yeah.
Totally. I can understand that. Say, let's call it a moral hazard, right? If you pipe up a fertility solution, then people might put off children. So that's theoretically possible. I don't want to dismiss it. But if we look at the Pew data, right, for Americans under 35, you've got half of them saying they're single. And of those singles, the vast majority say they feel no pressure to couple up.
No pressure to be in a relationship and perfectly happy with the status quo. And I don't think those secular monks we were talking about say, oh, it's fine. I'll find a woman in 20 years and we'll do IVF. I don't think that from my interviews, at least, I don't think IVF is entering into those calculations, partly because of what you precisely say.
Many people see IVF as unreliable, costly, expensive. So if IVF was currently cheap and everyone thought it was great, but we were all deluded and the scientists were deluding us and we were all overestimating its potential, then I think that explanation must have some credence. I think the hazard is possible. I don't think it's going on right now.
So let me say that I think, given our recent discussion, each of these possible interventions has limited efficacy. Evidently, there is no magic bullet. And given the enormity of the fertility crisis, what I as a researcher would really like to see will be so many different initiatives and pilot initiatives. You know, how can we build community groups? You know, let's go back to religion.
One thing that I think that religions have done so well historically is building a sense of community. So I spent a lot of time in small town Alabama, and I went to local Bible study, and I went to the churches, and I chatted to the community. And that's really, really important in singing hymns together and praying together.
That builds a sense of cohesion, those collective rituals, which also secular organizations could do. So we can organize, we can try a hundred different things. Let a hundred flowers bloom. So try all these little community events, Perhaps see how we can regulate technology in some ways at some periods in some ventures. And let's see how we can increase women's reproductive freedoms.
And let's see what we can do with the tax system and fiscal incentives. So I don't think any one of these things will fix it unilaterally. But I would like to see everyone, right and left, focus on this issue, understand the real driving forces and try to target those. But at present, we're not doing any of that.
Oh, thank you.
I agree. I agree.
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