Alice Han
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Podcast Appearances
Not to mention, obviously, the real estate crackdown that has obviously hit the net wealth effects for households. So we're seeing a very weak consumer environment. That has pushed prices down. Meanwhile, China is using more of its export engine machinery and manufacturing sector to try to offset some of the slowdown in the private consumption and the real estate sector.
Not to mention, obviously, the real estate crackdown that has obviously hit the net wealth effects for households. So we're seeing a very weak consumer environment. That has pushed prices down. Meanwhile, China is using more of its export engine machinery and manufacturing sector to try to offset some of the slowdown in the private consumption and the real estate sector.
That effectively means that you've got two sides of the equation. Domestic demand internally is very weak and meanwhile China is supplying increasingly cheap goods to the rest of the world because it needs to produce more to meet the sort of GDP targets it sets for itself every year.
That effectively means that you've got two sides of the equation. Domestic demand internally is very weak and meanwhile China is supplying increasingly cheap goods to the rest of the world because it needs to produce more to meet the sort of GDP targets it sets for itself every year.
That effectively means that you've got two sides of the equation. Domestic demand internally is very weak and meanwhile China is supplying increasingly cheap goods to the rest of the world because it needs to produce more to meet the sort of GDP targets it sets for itself every year.
So that creates a picture in which China is effectively exporting more disinflationary pressures to the rest of the world and that's really fueled a lot of these tariff debates not just within the US but within the EU too.
So that creates a picture in which China is effectively exporting more disinflationary pressures to the rest of the world and that's really fueled a lot of these tariff debates not just within the US but within the EU too.
So that creates a picture in which China is effectively exporting more disinflationary pressures to the rest of the world and that's really fueled a lot of these tariff debates not just within the US but within the EU too.
A lot of countries are very worried about Chinese overcapacity and China basically flooding the markets with cheap goods that it can do cheaper because it's got the scalability, it's got the cheap logistics infrastructure, and labor is still very, very competitive compared to these developed economies.
A lot of countries are very worried about Chinese overcapacity and China basically flooding the markets with cheap goods that it can do cheaper because it's got the scalability, it's got the cheap logistics infrastructure, and labor is still very, very competitive compared to these developed economies.
A lot of countries are very worried about Chinese overcapacity and China basically flooding the markets with cheap goods that it can do cheaper because it's got the scalability, it's got the cheap logistics infrastructure, and labor is still very, very competitive compared to these developed economies.
Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.
Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.
Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.
Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.
Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.
Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.
And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,
And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,
And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,