Alice Han

You've got hawks and doves, and clearly what I sense and what I've heard is that

The Doves, mainly Secretary Besant, Treasury Secretary Besant, clearly want this document not to be incendiary so that they can continue to have relatively stable negotiations with the Chinese counterparts in advance of Trump's potential April visit to China.

And one thing I will add, when I looked at the document itself, and Chinese media finally reflected on this too, is the fact that the Taiwan issue, which is critical to this relationship, was only mentioned three times in this document versus eight times in the 2017 document.

The Chinese media picked up on that quite intently.

Again, a sign that potentially on the Taiwan issue, the Trump administration has a more, I would say, protectionist bent, a bent towards retrenchment.

And certainly the rhetoric in the document about burden sharing with the Koreans and the Japanese seem to indicate that they want the allies in the region to foot the bill more and to be more independent.

on the front line when it comes to the first island chain response.

That is an issue that obviously pertains to Taiwan.

So what I sense from this document, and again, want to hear what you have to say, James, is that China really feels like it has a bit of a victory lap.

because the Trump administration isn't firing full cylinder on China.

But again, I think that reading between the lines, there are clear, I think, hawkish voices in the administration that want to take a more hawkish position on China.

It remains to be seen in 2026 if they are on the ascendant.

But I still think that that is worth flagging because it's definitely in the backdrop of this document.

But James, do you disagree or agree?

Well, my own sense is that Besant is in the driving seat and he clearly wants the relationship to go well in advance of Trump's visit.

And what I had heard, and I think this is public information too, what is clear is that the document had been first drafted by the State Department Director of Policy Planning, Michael Antard, before he left his position in August.

And then it went through many different figures.

through a chain of people, Secretary of State Mark Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, even the Vice President J.D.

Vance.

And it's very clear in this sort of team of rivals, so to speak, that these people have different positions on China and national security writ large.