Amara Mokwe

Yeah, it's not.

I think it's not really.

No, no, no.

It's not really feeling great.

But I mean, I think like when you look at the consumer spending data, and that's, I think, really important because we know that's a key driver of economic growth.

You know, we still got, you know, inflation adjusted spending that was up, right?

So it's, you know, that's, I think...

And we saw the personal savings rate also fall to its lowest level since mid-2022.

And some people were flagging that, like, is this a sign that the consumer is finally cracking?

I think the reason why people are sort of hesitant to say, OK, yes, we definitely have stagflation is because one of the things we know about the consumer in recent years is that

Americans have proven really resilient through a lot of different shocks, a lot of different twists and turns in the economy.

And so I think people are just, it's like feeling like it's maybe too soon to say.

People want to see how this situation in Iran plays out.

You know, it's really hard to get our arms around the situation because it seems like one day we're really close to a deal.

And then the next day, maybe we don't have a deal at all.

And so I think people are really sort of waiting for that time factor to figure out, okay,

You know, is this going to wrap up soon or are we going to be dealing with a price shock that kind of endures?

I think I mean, I think that's the big question.

Well, I mean, I think, you know, Governor Bowman had those remarks today, but I do think you are hearing a number of Fed officials kind of changing their tune and kind of warning that, you know, the central bank kind of needs to signal that the next move could very well be an interest rate hike because more of these Fed officials are starting to get concerned about this inflation being something that they can't look through.

Right.