Amy Scott

The Fed's job was complicated enough before the war.

From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

In Denver, I'm Amy Scott, in for Kai Risdahl.

It's Monday, March 16th.

Good to have you with us.

It is Fed Week, meaning the committee that guides short-term interest rates in this economy will meet starting tomorrow to discuss the state of that economy.

We'll get its decision on the federal funds rate on Wednesday.

The last time the Fed changed that rate with a quarter-point cut was December 2020.

Then we got a pause in January, and most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady this time, too.

Marketplace's Kristen Schwab looks at why and what officials will be watching for in the months ahead.

Between elevated inflation and a shaky job market, the Federal Reserve had already been setting the stage for an interest rate hold.

If an oil shock or something very similar to it is short-lived, probably the best thing a central bank can do is just wait.

Pricey gas could make consumers pull back on other spending, which would slow down the economy.

Now, usually, central bankers write this kind of shock off as a one-time thing, as transitory.

You know, that language has sort of been tarred and feathered, I think, by the experience during the pandemic.

Back then, the Fed insisted inflation was transitory.

But it ended up peaking above 9 percent and still hasn't come all the way down to the target rate of 2.

David Wessel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says the Fed has to use different messaging this time.

A surprisingly buoyant day on Wall Street today.

We'll have the details when we do the numbers.