Andrés Martínez-Fernández

Whether that is going to move into a next phase where we're, instead of going after the shipment of this illicit activity and going at the source, I think it's still an open question.

I think what we may be seeing right now is an effort to exacerbate some of the fissures in the regime and Maduro's loyalty, which

is really, it's been fractured for quite a while and it survived through really, it's impressive to see how it survived through all these challenges.

But I think it's the kind of house of cards that the only reason it remains is because it really hasn't been pressed against in a significant way.

And that's where we are seeing a change in the way the administration is approaching it.

And that may open up

those fissures and see someone taking advantage within the regime.

Again, this being a criminal organization where violence and power struggles have basically defined its reality for several years.

Maybe seeing that

expand beyond what the dictator Nicolas Maduro can control, maybe that leads to his ouster.

I think that's likely one of the factors.

Also, the other factor is social unrest and the public response within Venezuela.

Maduro has been unpopular for decades.

basically since he came into power, but he has almost no real public support beyond a very fringe minority which subsists off of public support.

And so, what we've seen in the past is protest activity that has really been dramatic in Venezuela.

We haven't seen that return in the past few months,

But we may see that be one of the consequences of people once again seeing the weakness of this regime within Venezuela and seeing an opening.

And that's the kind of thing that could also exacerbate some of those fissures in Maluta's support.

Yeah, I mean, this has been a years long kind of struggle.

And there's certainly been over that time a number of defections from the regime, including high level defections from the security forces and intelligence apparatus there.