Andrej Karpathy

Here's how long that takes.

No one has built autonomy.

It's not obvious.

Some parts turn out to be much easier than others.

So it's really hard to forecast.

You do your best based on trend lines and so on, and based on intuition.

But that's why fundamentally it's just really hard to forecast this.

Yes, some things turn out to be much harder and some things turn out to be much easier.

Yeah, I would say like, what's easy to say is that this problem is tractable and that's an easy prediction to make.

It's tractable.

It's going to work.

Yes.

It's just really hard.

Some things turn out to be harder than some things turn out to be easier.

So, but it's, it definitely feels tractable and it feels like at least the team at Tesla, which is what I saw internally is definitely on track to that.

Yeah, expert intuition.

Yeah, I would say definitely like to use a game analogy, there's some fog of war, but you definitely also see the frontier of improvement and you can measure historically how much you've made progress.

And I think, for example, at least what I've seen in roughly five years at Tesla, when I joined, it barely kept lane on the highway.

I think going up from Palo Alto to SF was like three or four interventions.

Anytime the road would do anything geometrically or turn too much, it would just like not work.