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Andrej Karpathy

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3419 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But to get further gains, I had to add a lot more data.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

I had to 10x the training set.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And then I had to actually add more computational optimizations.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

I had to basically train for much longer with dropout and other regularization techniques.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And so it's almost like all these things have to improve simultaneously.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So we're probably going to have a lot more data.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

We're probably going to have a lot better hardware.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

We're probably going to have a lot better kernels and software.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

We're probably going to have better algorithms.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And all of those, it's almost like no one of them is winning too much.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

All of them are surprisingly equal.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And this has kind of been the trend for a while.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So I guess to answer maybe your question, I expect differences algorithmically to what's happening today.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But I do also expect that some of the things that have stuck around for a very long time will probably still be there.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

It's probably still a giant neural network trained with gradient descent.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

That would be my guess.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But I guess what was shocking to me is everything needs to improve across the board.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

Architecture, optimizer, loss function, and also has improved across the board forever.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So I kind of expect all those changes to be alive and well.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

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