Andrew Dowell

Yeah, I think he's definitely on to something there.

You know, now that Iran has shown a willingness to attack the Gulf and now that Iran has shown a willingness to do that, even though the Gulf publicly denied the U.S.

access to its bases and airspace in order to conduct the attack, they're very likely thinking now that this is a threat that they can't live with and that will pose an existential threat to their own economies and economic plans if it persists.

Yeah, that's right.

I mean, the ceasefire has existed, but it's only really been a ceasefire in name and it's been pretty one-sided.

Israel's military has attacked Hezbollah targets or what they've said is Hezbollah targets in Lebanon more than a thousand times.

During that period, the Lebanese army has been working to disarm Hezbollah with limited success.

And Israel has been sort of waiting for a chance to go back in and finish the job and Hezbollah just gave them one.

So Hezbollah as a group aligned with Iran is under a lot of pressure.

internally to react, especially to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and they have, but they've opened themselves up now to a pretty significant attack by Israel.