Andrew England
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
It's been a little bit busy, yes.
It's been a bit crazy, but I never said it was a straight road.
There are mediation efforts going on, and they have been consistently going on, led by Pakistan.
Qatar's taking a bigger role now.
And about two weeks ago, they actually did feel that they were on the brink.
They had fought, because basically you're talking about one page, a one-page document.
And this is not a final deal, and that's one thing to remember.
This is essentially an extension of the ceasefire, which has been in place since April the 8th.
For Trump, the key thing is it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has obviously pushed energy prices up, pushed prices at the US petrol pump up ahead of the midterms.
So that's a key thing for him.
And he's wanted that essentially reopened as part of the original ceasefire on April the 8th.
So he's increasingly frustrated.
So it would do that and it would also lay the framework for nuclear negotiations on
There wouldn't be any significant commitment by Iran on the nuclear fire.
So essentially, it's a temporary deal to move to another phase, get a more durable ceasefire, give Trump a win in terms of reopening the strait, ease the global energy crisis.
And depending on how the next stage of negotiations go, there will be some economic dividend for Iran.
So they have been moving closer to it.
But then you're dealing with these two parties that have decades of hostility and distrust to overcome.
That's been exacerbated by the US and Israel striking Iran twice in the last year whilst it was holding nuclear talks with the Trump administration.