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Andrew Milgram

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
1035 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

But my first boss on Wall Street used to say, nothing so focuses the mind like a coupon payment.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

Right.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

And that is very true.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

When you have to make that contractual payment that is, let's say, generally speaking, non-negotiable, you get to a point where you have to make a hard decision about, do I need to restructure or can I persist?

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

When we looked at the data set over time, we've seen a few important characteristics.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

The middle market, EBITDA, essentially deteriorates every year.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

It just gets worse and worse and worse.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

Now, we compare that data versus public filers, and we look at the Russell 3000.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

So in that same period, those companies have public market access, so they tend to be better capitalized.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

They have, let's say, broader management teams.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

They have more access to resources.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

Those companies have done persistently and consistently better.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

EBITDA is strong and growing.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

Margins are steady, generally in the mid-teens.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

In the middle market, EBITDA is challenged.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

I mean, there's no other way to put it.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

I think over the measurement period in the most recent data,

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

EBITDA has been down 20%, 25% since 2019.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

That's really a difficult place to exist.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Andrew Milgram - Full-Contact Capitalism - [Invest Like the Best, EP.436]

Margins in the middle market are also much, much, much narrower.