Andrew Miller

Their footprint in each of those cities is small, but they're going to grow quickly.

So it really depends on how fast

Waymo can scale and how fast their two big competitors, Zoox and Tesla, can scale.

So let's say I'm always wary of making predictions because this field is so rife with hucksters and charlatans who make predictions.

It's going to be 10 years is a good anchoring thing.

2035.

Yes.

It's partially connected to the AI revolution.

The AI revolution is making some of the problems that were associated with iterating the technology easier to solve.

But Google's been working on this since the first decade of the century.

And the reason that Google's been working on it and others have been working on it, the reason that Elon Musk thinks that self-driving is the future is

is because rather like generative AI, teaching a car how to drive is very expensive initially, but once you know how to do it, it is very, very cheap to copy.

And then because it is a shared vehicle as opposed to a privately owned vehicle,

A robo-taxi can be used as much, as many hours a day as you can keep it clean and charged.

Then it can just spit out money for you endlessly, every hour, every day, every week.

So from a business point of view, it's a wonderful business to be in if you can spend enough money to get to the point where you have a safe and reliable product.

So one way to look at it is that if humans can drive in bad weather, a machine can't.

The question of how they do it depends on which technology stack you are thinking of.

So the Waymo approach relies on the consensus of the field that for a self-driving car to know—I'll put that in quotes—

know where it is.