Andrew Nicholl

I'm Andrew Nicholl.

Ed has had to carry all of the podcast equipment to the property we're staying at in Queenstown, just so that we can get this out to you listeners tomorrow.

David's going to be working all night editing, but the announcement was that the OCR has been kept the same at 2.25%, so no change there.

But as we've said on previous shows, all the meaty stuff, all the good stuff, that happens in the reports and the forecast.

And that's what Ed's been reading on the airplane to make sure that we can get this to you.

And the lesson that matters is the last time the Reserve Bank came out with all their forecasts, it was back in February.

Now, the Strait of Hormuz was still open at that stage and oil prices, they kind of hadn't shot up at that stage.

Now we get to see where the heads are at.

So I get that obviously inflation is probably higher at the moment because of the pressure around oil supply and the flow and effect that that has.

But if they're predicting kind of when inflation might get under control, are they assuming that petrol prices are under control by then?

And when you say oil futures, what you're talking about is the market's opinion.

Is that right?

So if we look at the Reserve Bank's predictions, they think the OCR... I always like when I think about, OK, well, they're making the predictions of what they're going to do.

That'd be like Ed predicting what he's going to make for dinner.

And obviously... I've got no idea.

Yeah.

And he might realize he doesn't have any leaks, so he's not going to make leak soup and things might change in the economy.

But at the moment, Reserve Bank are saying that they forecast the OCR is going to go up further and faster than they originally thought it would.

Yeah.

And so previously, they thought that the OCR might go up to 3% in about three years, which would be in 2029.