Annie Lowrey

Trying to understand productivity using quarterly data is kind of like using a weather report to understand the climate, says Gerald Cohen with UNC.

He says U.S.

productivity isn't as bad or as good as today's quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year numbers say it is.

He says annualized productivity growth since 2019 is around 2.1 percent.

Better than the last decade or so, but it could be higher.

So how much of today's gains are coming from AI?

That's Yelena Shalecheva with the Conference Board, who thinks productivity growth today is more about automation coming out of the pandemic.

Think of self-checkout at the supermarket.

Another sector that's made gains because of the pandemic?

Restaurants.

It's pretty much driven by DoorDash.

That's Erica McIntarfer with Stanford.

So lots of people developed DoorDash habits during the pandemic that they have not given up.

and it has expanded the revenue potential for many restaurants.

She says there's also been a productivity boom in the gambling industry.

It is now much easier to gamble on your phone.

So that obviously means more profit for gambling companies.

They are doing very well.

While it is too soon to extrapolate much about AI in this current productivity data, Chapman University's Seth Benzel says... In the medium and long term,

So when it comes to productivity gains, don't worry, the robots are coming.