Anthony DeBarros
Appearances
WSJ What’s News
Markets Rattled as U.S. Tariffs Go Into Effect
We would start to expect to see prices on certain items be affected within the next month or so. Now, that said, a lot of companies that import goods spent a lot of money during December and January and February as well to bring in product ahead of the tariffs. So that could mitigate some of the immediate price impacts that we're talking about here.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
Yeah. So their consensus is for a significant economic slowdown with inflation. year-over-year GDP growth at just 0.8% for the fourth quarter. That's down from 2% in our January survey. But many of our economists also say there's a high level of uncertainty in their forecasts due to the whipsawing nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been Enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs. We can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
And you can see that reflected in the wide range of those fourth quarter GDP forecasts. They range from a negative 2% to a plus 3.1%. Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs, we can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
Well, the economists are forecasting hotter inflation ahead. For December, the consensus is 3.6% year-over-year change in the consumer price index, and that's up from 2.7% in their prior forecast. And in terms of unemployment, at the end of this year, that's expected to be at 4.7%, up from 4.3% in the January forecast.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
So both of those are reflecting some of these changes that we were talking about with the tariffs, a higher cost for imported goods because of the tariffs, and the effects of a slowing economy on the job market. So although some economists are foreseeing job losses, the consensus is still that the economy over The next four quarters is going to add about 55,000 jobs a month.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
Now, that's down, but it's still positive growth.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
Yeah, so the probability that the U.S. is going to fall into recession in the next month, the consensus from our economists now is 45%. And as you say, that's up from 22% in January. So that is a climb, but it's still lower than readings in, let's say, 22 and 23 when the Federal Reserve was battling persistent inflation by raising interest rates.
WSJ What’s News
Investors Cheer a Tariff Rollback for the Tech Industry
One thing, though, it's important to note is that, like we said earlier, forecasting the economy is hard. And even though our panel's consensus back in 22 and 23 was that a recession was likely, we never did get a recession.