Anthony DeBarros

One reason is they see persistent inflationary pressure in part from rising energy costs as a result of the Iran war, which we saw reflected in Friday's inflation data from the federal government.

But they also say the recent Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs

won't offer much relief on prices either.

Their consensus calls for inflation to remain above 3 percent through the year.

Over the past few years, consumers have shown a surprising ability to keep on shopping even though prices keep rising.

And what worries economists now is that additional price increases caused by the war could finally be the straw that breaks the camel's back and forces consumers to tighten their budgets.

But other economists point to continued massive spending on AI infrastructure and also resilience among wealthy consumers that is going to help the economy avoid a major downturn.

People want to have children, but they're a little bit uncertain about

their future.

People are looking around at their lives and they're not so sure that they're going to have jobs or the job success that would sustain having a growing family.

They're also not so sure about where the economy is going to go.

There's concern over the political climate.

And there's also some concerns about the relationships that they're in and whether those relationships are ready for children.

Those three things are what we're hearing from demographers.

There's been a lot of education around telling young people that having children before they're ready will essentially ruin their lives.

And those messages have been particularly effective in encouraging teens not to have children.

Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been Enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs. We can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.

Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been Enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs. We can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.

Yeah. So their consensus is for a significant economic slowdown with inflation. year-over-year GDP growth at just 0.8% for the fourth quarter. That's down from 2% in our January survey. But many of our economists also say there's a high level of uncertainty in their forecasts due to the whipsawing nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies.

Yeah. So their consensus is for a significant economic slowdown with inflation. year-over-year GDP growth at just 0.8% for the fourth quarter. That's down from 2% in our January survey. But many of our economists also say there's a high level of uncertainty in their forecasts due to the whipsawing nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies.