A.M. Edition for April 14. Global stocks rise after a Friday filing showed that smartphones, computers and other categories of tech products will be exempt from sweeping tariffs imposed earlier this month. WSJ markets reporter Caitlin McCabe surveys how equities are responding. Plus, data news editor Anthony DeBarros breaks down the Journal’s latest survey of economists, which featured an unusual lack of consensus about future U.S. growth prospects. And a Trump official who oversaw the closure of USAID has left the State Department. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What led to the rise of global stocks?
Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been Enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs. We can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.
And an update on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks held over the weekend. It's Monday, April 14th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Global markets and tech stocks in particular are starting the week on positive footing after U.S.
Customs and Border Protection said in a filing late Friday that computers, tablets, Apple Watches and other electronics will be able to dodge many tariffs on Chinese products, as well as the 10 percent tariff on all global imports.
Chapter 2: How are tariffs affecting the tech industry?
That news initially fueled hope that the tech industry could avoid an immediate surge in costs, though relief could be short-lived, with President Trump saying tech products will soon be covered by separate semiconductor tariffs, the details of which he said on Air Force One could come this week.
Well, here with more on what markets are making of all of this, I'm joined by journal reporter Caitlin McCabe. Caitlin, walk us through what we're seeing this morning in response to this latest U.S. trade messaging.
Chapter 3: What is the latest on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks?
Chapter 4: Why is there a lack of consensus among economists?
And an update on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks held over the weekend. It's Monday, April 14th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Global markets and tech stocks in particular are starting the week on positive footing after U.S.
Customs and Border Protection said in a filing late Friday that computers, tablets, Apple Watches and other electronics will be able to dodge many tariffs on Chinese products, as well as the 10 percent tariff on all global imports.
That news initially fueled hope that the tech industry could avoid an immediate surge in costs, though relief could be short-lived, with President Trump saying tech products will soon be covered by separate semiconductor tariffs, the details of which he said on Air Force One could come this week.
Well, here with more on what markets are making of all of this, I'm joined by journal reporter Caitlin McCabe. Caitlin, walk us through what we're seeing this morning in response to this latest U.S. trade messaging.
So as expected, investors are liking this news for now at least. Looking at the Asian session, we saw there that tech stocks and Apple suppliers were up modestly. A few notable movers from Apple suppliers that included Foxconn Technology Inc., It gained a little bit over 3% during the Asian session. Largan Precision, which supplies camera lenses to Apple, added over 5%.
And looking now at even U.S. pre-market trading, Apple itself is up as we speak. And a snapback in a name like Apple could be quite significant for the overall market.
God, and those big names had fallen further than the market on average in recent weeks. And yet, whether we're speaking about Apple or some of these other big companies in tech, they're not entirely out of the woods, are they?
Definitely not. As you mentioned, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick out over the weekend saying that tech products will face separate levies. And that's a sentiment that Trump seemed to support in a Truth Social post on Sunday. Stepping back a bit, regardless of where things end up, my colleague Dan Gallagher points out in a column this morning that Apple is in a tough situation.
It's very much at the mercy of the Trump administration right now. They could still get hit with other tariffs. And as Dan points out, the administration remains keenly interested in on-shoring production of everything designed by U.S. companies. And that's going to be tough on Apple in particular, given how much of its manufacturing base is abroad and in countries like China.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of China's export growth?
And in other markets news today, Goldman Sachs this morning will kick off a busy earnings week with the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines providing clues in the coming days on how tariffs are impacting the economy. Goldman's results are due at 7.30 a.m. Eastern.
Coming up, we'll dive into the journal's latest survey of economists and run through the rest of the day's headlines after the break.
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Well, as the effects of tariffs have come into focus in recent weeks, we have reported here on the economic forecasts coming out of a number of individual firms, including Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. But today we can do you one better by digging into The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey of economists.
It was just published over the weekend and brings together the thinking of some 64 academic and business economists who were polled between Liberation Day and last week's reciprocal tariff pause. And here to crunch the numbers is Wall Street Journal data news editor Anthony DeBarros.
Anthony, your report here shows that since President Trump took office, economists have dramatically slashed their growth estimates while raising their expectations for inflation and unemployment. Let's get granular about it. Define the coming slowdown as economists see it.
Yeah. So their consensus is for a significant economic slowdown with inflation. year-over-year GDP growth at just 0.8% for the fourth quarter. That's down from 2% in our January survey. But many of our economists also say there's a high level of uncertainty in their forecasts due to the whipsawing nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies.
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Chapter 6: How will U.S. consumers feel the impact of tariffs?
And you can see that reflected in the wide range of those fourth quarter GDP forecasts. They range from a negative 2% to a plus 3.1%. Typically, the consensus is a bit tighter, but the fact that the Trump administration has been enacting tariffs, pausing tariffs, we can see in the gyrations of the stock market that everyone's trying to find some certainty amidst all of the changes.
Take us into some of the other findings here. You asked economists about their expectations for inflation as well as employment, two ways where Americans individually could really feel the effects of tariffs. What do they project here?
Well, the economists are forecasting hotter inflation ahead. For December, the consensus is 3.6% year-over-year change in the consumer price index, and that's up from 2.7% in their prior forecast. And in terms of unemployment, at the end of this year, that's expected to be at 4.7%, up from 4.3% in the January forecast.
So both of those are reflecting some of these changes that we were talking about with the tariffs, a higher cost for imported goods because of the tariffs, and the effects of a slowing economy on the job market. So although some economists are foreseeing job losses, the consensus is still that the economy over The next four quarters is going to add about 55,000 jobs a month.
Now, that's down, but it's still positive growth.
And finally, on the risk of a recession, this probability stood at just over 20 percent when you asked in January. What about now?
Yeah, so the probability that the U.S. is going to fall into recession in the next month, the consensus from our economists now is 45%. And as you say, that's up from 22% in January. So that is a climb, but it's still lower than readings in, let's say, 22 and 23 when the Federal Reserve was battling persistent inflation by raising interest rates.
One thing, though, it's important to note is that, like we said earlier, forecasting the economy is hard. And even though our panel's consensus back in 22 and 23 was that a recession was likely, we never did get a recession.
Anthony DeBarros is The Wall Street Journal's data news editor in Washington. Anthony, thank you so much for bringing us this report.
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Chapter 7: What can we expect from Goldman Sachs earnings?
You're welcome.
Officials from the U.S. and Iran took part in indirect talks over the weekend in Oman, with Iran seeking sanctions relief from the U.S. in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.
The White House said the meeting was a step forward, while Iran's foreign minister said the next round of talks would include discussion on a timeline for negotiations and potentially a general framework for a new nuclear accord. Iran's latest proposals were largely based on the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, an agreement Trump pulled out of in 2018.
And we are exclusively reporting that Pete Morocco, a key architect of the Trump administration's campaign to slash foreign aid spending, has left the State Department after less than three months on the job. Morocco oversaw the cancellation of more than 80 percent of foreign aid programs and the closure of the U.S.
Agency for International Development, working closely with Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, though officials said he at times clashed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A State Department reorganization plan is due today to the Office of Management and Budget, which is expected to lay out in part how USAID's previous functions will fold into state.
And that's it for What's News for this Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Boulivant. Our supervising producer was Daniel Bach. And I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.
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