Anthony Scilipoti

Cisco still exists today but has never traded at its historical valuation.

And yet it's multiples bigger than it was back then by earnings and by revenue.

That's right.

And I think right now, the reason why I think we're in a very high risk situation is because of the cost of the risk.

is priced very low, and that's when the risk is highest.

And so how do we look at that?

We look at the high-yield bond spread, the spread between the 10-year bond and the high-yield bond in the U.S., okay?

That's the non-investment-grade bonds.

Well, that's the tightest, near the tightest it's ever been, which means that investors are willing to lend money to non-investment-grade companies

at a spread over what a government bond is at a rate which is the tightest it's been practically in history.

So there's no risk priced into the bond market.

And then in the equity markets, we use VIX, which is a measure of volatility of the S&P 500.

And that is trading at a benign level.

It's not the lowest it's ever been, but it's at a benign level.

So in essence, what investors are saying is there's no risk.

They want interest rates down because debts have continued to balloon in a period which has been...

relatively buoyant by historical standards.

And interest rates, they perceive interest rates are going to go down.

That's going to keep on the buoyancy.

Well, the central bank, and if you followed Powell, despite all the pressures coming from Trump to cut rates, I mean, Powell is going to cut rates because he's concerned about either the employment situation, right, or the economic situation more broadly.